MORNING.BRIEF

Friday, March 13, 2026

☀️ Today marks one year since the first General Election in Vietnam 80 years ago — a reminder that democracy and progress are built one day at a time, just like your portfolio.

Markets Snapshot

Equities

S&P 500
6,672.62
1d: 🔴 (1.5%)   YTD: 🔴 (3.0%)
NASDAQ
22,311.98
1d: 🔴 (1.8%)   YTD: 🔴 (1.2%)
Dow
46,677.85
1d: 🔴 (1.6%)   YTD: 🔴 (4.7%)
Russell 2000
2,495.97
1d: 🔴 (2.1%)   YTD: 🔴 (3.8%)
MSCI EAFE
98.75
1d: 🔴 (0.5%)   YTD: 🟢 +1.2%
MSCI EM
1,089.50
1d: 🔴 (0.8%)   YTD: 🔴 (2.1%)
Mag 7
60.99
1d: 🔴 (1.9%)   YTD: 🔴 (1.9%)

Rates, FX & Volatility

10Y Treasury
4.27%
1d: 🟢 +5 bps   YTD: 🟢 +14 bps
30Y Treasury
4.88%
1d: 🟢 +2 bps   YTD: 🟢 +18 bps
DXY
100.04
1d: 🟢 +0.3%   YTD: 🟢 +3.2%
VIX
26.47
1d: 🟢 +9.2%   YTD: 🟢 +10.2%

Commodities

Gold
$5,114
1d: 🔴 (1.3%)   YTD: 🟢 +71.4%
Brent Crude
$100.46
1d: 🟢 +9.2%   YTD: 🟢 +42.1%

Crypto

BTC
$72,395
1d: 🟢 +3.1%   YTD: 🔴 (10.7%)
ETH
$2,111
1d: 🟢 +4.2%   YTD: 🔴 (56.9%)
SOL
$89.09
1d: 🟢 +5.4%   YTD: 🔴 (69.7%)
Sector Moves: Energy led Thursday with a 2.5% gain as oil majors rallied on supply disruption. Fertilizer stocks surged on Strait of Hormuz closure — CF Industries up 7.3%, Mosaic up 4.8% — while tech and financials bore the brunt of selling pressure.
Drivers: Thursday's selloff was driven by Iran's new Supreme Leader vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatening U.S. bases. Brent crude settled above $100 for the first time since August 2022, while all three major indices posted 2026 closing lows.
98

Iran Supreme Leader Vows Strait of Hormuz Stays Closed

Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said on Thursday, March 12, that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed as a tool to pressure the enemy, and threatened that all U.S. military bases in the Middle East will be attacked. The statement sent oil prices surging and equity markets to 2026 lows.

92

IEA Announces Record 400 Million Barrel Emergency Oil Release

The International Energy Agency announced on Wednesday, March 11, that its 32 member countries will release 400 million barrels of crude oil, the largest emergency action in the organization's history. The move aims to counter supply disruption from the Iran war, but markets remain skeptical as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed.

85

U.S. Temporarily Lifts Sanctions on Russian Oil in Transit

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Friday, March 13, that the U.S. is temporarily waiving sanctions on Russian oil already in transit to help expand global supply amid the Iran crisis. The narrowly tailored measure applies only to oil at sea and will not provide significant financial benefit to Russia, Bessent said.

72

Stryker Hit by Pro-Iranian Cyberattack

Medical device maker Stryker disclosed on Thursday, March 12, that it is experiencing a global network disruption to its Microsoft environment as a result of a cyberattack attributed to pro-Iranian hackers. The company said it has no indication of ransomware or malware and believes the incident is contained.

Top Story

Brent Crude Breaks $100 as Iran Vows to Keep Strait of Hormuz Shut

Brent crude settled at $100.46 per barrel on Thursday, March 12, its first close above $100 since August 2022, after Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed as a tool to pressure the enemy. WTI surged 9.7% to $95.73. The IEA announced a record 400 million barrel emergency release, but markets shrugged off the intervention as roughly 20% of global oil supply remains stranded.

💡 The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime passage between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply flows, making it the most critical energy chokepoint on Earth.

Tech & AI

Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen Steps Down After 18 Years

Adobe announced on Thursday, March 12, that CEO Shantanu Narayen will step down once a successor is named, a process expected to take several months. The company beat Q1 estimates with AI-first product revenue more than tripling year-over-year. Shares fell 8% in premarket trading Friday despite the strong results.

Morgan Stanley Warns AI Breakthrough Coming in H1 2026

Morgan Stanley issued a sweeping report on Thursday warning that a transformative AI leap is imminent in the first half of 2026, driven by unprecedented compute accumulation at top AI labs. The bank cited Elon Musk's belief that 10x compute effectively doubles model intelligence, and said scaling laws are holding firm. Most of the world isn't ready for the shift, the bank warned.

Nvidia GTC Conference Set for March 16-19 in San Jose

Nvidia's annual GTC conference kicks off next week in San Jose, with analysts calling it the real March Madness for AI. Daiwa reiterated a buy rating with a $215 price target ahead of the event, where developers and business leaders will explore the latest in AI innovation. Nvidia shares were down 1.6% Thursday amid broader market weakness.

Crypto & Web3

Crypto Trader Loses $50 Million in Single DeFi Transaction

A crypto user lost roughly $50 million on Thursday, March 12, after swapping $50.4 million aEthUSDT for aEthAAVE through CoW Protocol and triggering massive slippage. Aave founder Stani Kulechov said the interface warned about extraordinary slippage and required explicit mobile confirmation. The wallet received just $36,000 after the swap executed.

💡 Slippage occurs in DeFi when a large trade against shallow liquidity causes the execution price to differ dramatically from the quoted price, often exploited by arbitrage bots.

Bitcoin Tops $72,000 as Crypto Defies Equity Weakness

Bitcoin climbed 2% to break through $72,000 on Friday morning, March 13, even as U.S. equity futures slipped and the dollar strengthened. Altcoins and AI tokens joined the rally, with Ethereum up 4.2% to $2,111 and Solana gaining 5.4% to $89. BTC is holding above $71,000 despite rising Treasury yields and oil prices, showing resilience amid geopolitical stress.

What's Ahead

Friday, March 13: Q4 2025 GDP Second Estimate & University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment — The Commerce Department releases its second estimate of Q4 GDP on Friday morning after the first revision showed just 0.7% growth, down from an initial 1.4% estimate. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is also due, with inflation expectations closely watched as oil prices surge.
Monday, March 16: Nvidia GTC Conference Begins — Nvidia's premier annual AI conference kicks off in San Jose, running through March 19. Developers, researchers, and business leaders will gather to explore the latest in AI innovation. Analysts are watching for announcements on next-generation chips and enterprise AI adoption.
Wednesday, March 18: Federal Reserve Policy Decision — The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at 3.50-3.75% next week, but markets will focus on the updated dot plot and Chair Powell's commentary on the inflation impact of surging oil prices. Rate cut expectations have been pushed back from July to September.

Something Fascinating

Chickpeas Successfully Grown in Simulated Moon Soil

Scientists announced on March 12, 2026, that they have successfully grown chickpeas in simulated lunar regolith, offering a promising step toward farming on the Moon. Researchers mixed moon-like soil with worm-produced compost and beneficial fungi that protect plants from toxic metals. The breakthrough could make chickpeas the first food crop cultivated on the lunar surface.

💡 Lunar regolith is the layer of loose, fragmented material covering solid bedrock on the Moon's surface, composed of fine dust and rocky debris created by billions of years of meteorite impacts.

Morning.Brief — Friday, March 13, 2026

Built by Phil Dressler

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