MORNING BRIEF

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

☀️ The global literacy rate has risen from 42% in 1960 to 87% today—more humans can read right now than at any point in history.

Markets Snapshot

March 16, 2026 — 4:00 PM ET close

Stocks rebounded sharply Monday as oil prices pulled back on reports that the US is allowing Iranian tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply shock fears. The S&P 500 gained 1.01% and the Nasdaq climbed 1.22%, driven by broad-based strength in tech and small caps as investors reassessed stagflation risks. Brent crude fell 2.84% to $100.21 and WTI dropped 5.28% to $93.50, signaling that the market is pricing in a less severe disruption to global energy supplies than feared last week.
Why It Matters: The oil pullback is critical because it removes the primary inflation wildcard that was forcing the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. With energy prices moderating, the bond market is repricing rate-cut expectations—the 10Y yield fell 6.5 bps—which mechanically supports duration-sensitive growth stocks and reduces the stagflation tail risk that had dominated sentiment. However, the Fed meets tomorrow and will likely hold steady at 3.50–3.75%, but the tone on the Iran conflict and inflation outlook will determine whether this rebound has legs or is a bear-market bounce. Watch the dot plot for any signal that the Fed is reconsidering its 'higher for longer' stance.
ADBE — Adobe Inc.
$257.26 +2.14% Biggest S&P 500 Mover

Adobe shares surged on Monday as investors rotated into software names following the broader market rebound from three consecutive weeks of losses. The rally reflects easing concerns about the Iran conflict's impact on tech valuations, with the stock benefiting from renewed appetite for mega-cap software exposure after a brutal selloff that saw software shorts hit 17-year highs.

Equities

S&P 500
6699.38
1d: 🟢 +1.01%   YTD: 🔴 (0.61%)
NASDAQ
22374.18
1d: 🟢 +1.22%   YTD: 🔴 (0.93%)
Dow
46946.41
1d: 🟢 +0.83%   YTD: 🔴 (0.26%)
Russell 2000
2503.29
1d: 🟢 +0.94%   YTD: 🔴 (0.36%)
Mag 7
60.88
1d: 🟢 +1.57%   YTD: 🔴 (7.2%)
Nikkei 225
53890.00
1d: 🟢 +0.26%   YTD: 🔴 (8.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50
5712.00
1d: 🔴 (0.60%)   YTD: 🔴 (3.2%)
MSCI EAFE
2847.50
1d: 🔴 (0.45%)   YTD: 🔴 (2.8%)
MSCI EM
1156.30
1d: 🟢 +0.38%   YTD: 🔴 (1.5%)

Rates & Yield Curve

2Y Treasury
4.18%
1d: 🔴 (2.0 bps)   YTD: 🟢 +45 bps
10Y Treasury
4.22%
1d: 🔴 (6.5 bps)   YTD: 🟢 +38 bps
30Y Treasury
4.35%
1d: 🔴 (8.0 bps)   YTD: 🟢 +42 bps
2s/10s Spread
4 bps
1d: 🔴 (4.5 bps)   YTD: 🔴 (7 bps)
30Y Mortgage Rate
6.12%
1d: 🟢 +12 bps   YTD: 🔴 (53 bps)

FX & Volatility

DXY
100.23
1d: 🟢 +0.12%   YTD: 🔴 (1.8%)
VIX
23.51
1d: 🔴 (13.53%)   YTD: 🟢 +18.2%

Commodities

Gold
5014.40
1d: 🟢 +0.24%   YTD: 🟢 +8.3%
WTI Crude
93.50
1d: 🔴 (5.28%)   YTD: 🟢 +43.6%
Brent Crude
100.21
1d: 🔴 (2.84%)   YTD: 🟢 +48.2%
Natural Gas
2.65
1d: 🔴 (1.2%)   YTD: 🔴 (17.7%)
Copper
4.18
1d: 🟢 +0.72%   YTD: 🟢 +12.4%

Crypto

BTC
74772.04
1d: 🟢 +2.80%   YTD: 🟢 +52.1%
ETH
3847.50
1d: 🟢 +1.95%   YTD: 🟢 +38.7%
SOL
187.32
1d: 🟢 +3.12%   YTD: 🟢 +61.4%
Economic Backdrop Fed Funds: 3.50–3.75%CPI: 2.9% YoY (January 2026)Unemployment: 4.4% (February 2026)Next FOMC: March 18 — 99% chance of hold
Prediction Markets
Will the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC meeting (March 18)? 1% CME FedWatch
Will the S&P 500 close above 6,800 by end of Q1 2026? 38% Polymarket
Will oil prices stay above $100/barrel through March? 72% Kalshi
Will the US and Iran reach a ceasefire by April 30? 19% Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $100K by end of 2026? 64% Kalshi
94

Iran War Enters Third Week; Oil Volatility Persists Despite Tanker Corridor Reopening

Stocks rose on Monday, while oil prices pulled back as Wall Street tried to recover from another losing week, with investors monitoring the latest developments of the Iran war. The Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.5% to around 54,000 while the broader Topix Index gained 1.5% to 3,665 on Tuesday, snapping a three-day decline and tracking a rebound on Wall Street overnight as easing oil prices helped lift investor sentiment, with the move coming as several tankers safely navigated the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict remains the dominant macro driver, with markets oscillating between supply shock fears and de-escalation hopes.

78

Software Stocks Rally as Investors Buy the Dip; Short Interest Hits 17-Year High

Software shorts are at the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, with median short interest across software companies spiking to over 5%, marking the highest level in about 17 years. Monday's rebound saw software names like Adobe (+2.14%) lead the charge as investors rotated back into beaten-down mega-cap tech. The extreme short positioning suggests a potential squeeze if the market continues higher, but fundamental concerns about AI disruption remain.

72

Mortgage Rates Hit 3-Month Highs at 6.12%; Spring Buying Season Faces Affordability Headwinds

The average mortgage interest rate on a 30-year mortgage is 6.12% as of March 17, 2026, according to Zillow. The Middle East conflict still weighs on the bond market and home loan rates are now the highest in three months. Despite the recent oil pullback, mortgage rates remain elevated due to lingering inflation concerns and the Fed's patient stance on rate cuts, pressuring housing affordability as buyers enter spring season.

68

RBA Hikes Rates as Oil Shock Lifts Inflation Risks; Global Central Banks Tighten

Australian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next week, with Westpac lifting RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, seeing RBA hiking rates in March and May as inflation risks rise. The Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to tighten reflects the global transmission of energy price shocks, with oil-importing economies facing stagflation pressures that force central banks to prioritize inflation control over growth support.

Top Story

Oil Shock Eases as US Allows Iranian Tanker Traffic; Market Reprices Stagflation Risk

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the United States is currently allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude futures settled at $93.5 per barrel, down 5.28%, while Brent crude futures in London settled at $100.21 per barrel, down 2.84%. The move signals a potential de-escalation in the three-week-old Iran conflict and removes the primary driver of stagflation fears that had dominated markets since late February. The S&P 500 rose 1.01% to close the session at 6,699.38, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.22% to end at 22,374.18, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 387.94 points, or 0.83%, to 46,946.41.

💡 Stagflation (stagnation + inflation) — an economic environment combining slow growth with rising prices, which typically forces central banks into a policy bind: cutting rates risks inflation, while raising rates risks recession. The Iran conflict threatened this scenario by spiking oil prices, which would push headline inflation higher while slowing growth. Easing oil prices removes that tail risk.

Tech & AI

Nvidia GTC 2026 Kicks Off with Jensen Huang Announcing $1 Trillion Revenue Target by 2027

Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang combines his company's cutting-edge AI breakthroughs with his signature humor and leather jacket style in his keynote address at the GTC 2026 event. The sales figure is an update to last year's forecast, when Huang said chip sales would total $500 billion through 2026. The announcement signals confidence in sustained AI infrastructure demand despite recent market volatility, with Nvidia positioning itself as the critical infrastructure layer for the AI buildout.

xAI Undergoes Complete Rebuild as Elon Musk Acknowledges Structural Issues; Key Co-Founders Depart

Elon Musk has acknowledged that xAI 'was not built right' and is undergoing a complete rebuild from the ground up, with multiple co-founders—including Tony Wu, Igor Babuschkin, Kyle Kosic, and Christian Szegedy—having departed in recent weeks. With SpaceX's upcoming IPO tied to xAI's trajectory, this represents a pivotal moment for AI startups racing to challenge incumbents. The restructuring highlights the technical debt and scaling challenges facing even well-funded AI ventures.

Meta and AMD Formalize $60 Billion AI Chip Partnership; Multivendor Strategy Accelerates

Meta and AMD formalize a 60 billion dollar AI chip partnership tied to a 6 gigawatt GPU rollout and expanded multivendor compute strategy. The deal signals Meta's commitment to reducing Nvidia dependency and building custom silicon for its AI infrastructure, mirroring similar moves by Google and Amazon. This diversification reduces concentration risk in the AI supply chain and could pressure Nvidia's margins long-term.

Crypto & Web3

Circle (CRCL) Surges 10% on Stablecoin Adoption Surge; USDC Circulation Exceeds $79 Billion

Circle (CRCL) stock jumped as much as 10% on Monday amid deepening stablecoin adoption and expectations that the Federal Reserve will push back interest rate cuts, with the issuer's USDC (USDC-USD) in circulation surpassing $79 billion in March, up 5% year to date and more than 25% since the passage of the GENIUS Act last year. Higher-for-longer interest rates and a growing supply of the stablecoin boost the company's reserve income, as investors have also pared back expectations that the Fed will cut rates anytime soon as surging oil prices raise concerns about higher inflation.

Prediction Markets Face Regulatory Showdown; Kalshi and Polymarket Valued at ~$20 Billion Amid Legal Pressure

Prediction market leaders Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly exploring fundraising rounds that could value each company at roughly $20 billion, even as lawmakers and courts intensify pressure on the sector. On Tuesday, U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act, a bill that would bar prediction platforms from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, and deaths. The regulatory battle reflects growing concerns about insider trading and the ethical boundaries of prediction markets.

What's Ahead

Wednesday, March 18: Federal Reserve FOMC Decision & Press Conference (2:00 PM ET) There's a 99% probability that the Fed will hold its benchmark rate steady in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% on March 18, according to CME FedWatch. The critical focus will be the Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and Chair Powell's commentary on the Iran conflict's impact on inflation and growth. Expect volatility if the Fed signals a more hawkish stance on rate cuts due to energy price risks.

💡 Dot plot — a chart showing where each FOMC member expects interest rates to be by year-end and beyond. Markets scrutinize this closely for signals about the Fed's future policy path.

Thursday, March 19: Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET); Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) — Labor market data will be critical given recent softening in employment growth. Existing home sales figures will reflect the impact of higher mortgage rates (now at 6.12%) on housing demand as spring buying season begins.
Friday, March 20: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary, 10:00 AM ET) — Consumer sentiment has been pressured by geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy prices. This reading will gauge whether the oil pullback and stock market rebound have restored confidence or if consumers remain cautious about inflation and economic growth.

Something Fascinating

Scientists Discover Cells Can Sense 10x Farther Than Expected; Cancer Cells Probe Collagen Fibers Ahead of Themselves

Scientists have discovered that cells can sense far beyond the surfaces they touch, with individual cancer cells able to probe about 10 microns ahead by tugging on surrounding collagen fibers, while clusters of normal epithelial cells can combine forces to sense even farther. The discovery, published March 16, 2026, reveals a previously unknown mechanism by which cancer cells may navigate tissue and metastasize, opening new avenues for understanding tumor progression and potential therapeutic targets. This finding challenges the conventional view that cells only respond to immediate contact signals.

💡 Metastasize — the process by which cancer cells spread from a primary tumor to distant sites in the body. Understanding how cancer cells sense and navigate their environment is critical for developing treatments that block this process.

Morning Brief — Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Built by Phil Dressler

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