Wednesday, March 25, 2026
☀️ A sea turtle that hatched in 1962 is still swimming somewhere in the Pacific right now, unbothered by markets, rates, or geopolitics—just vibing.
March 25, 2026 — 4:00 PM ET close
Amazon surged on Wednesday after UBS raised its AWS revenue growth forecast to +28% YoY for 1Q26 and +29% for full-year 2026, accelerating to +37% in 2027 as partnerships with Anthropic and OpenAI ramp. The cloud division's AI infrastructure capex guidance continues to impress, signaling sustained institutional demand for enterprise AI services. This move reflects broader market recognition that mega-cap tech's AI investments are translating into measurable revenue acceleration, not just speculative positioning.
Apollo's $15 billion private credit fund was hit with redemption requests totaling 11.2% of shares — more than twice its 5% quarterly limit — and will distribute roughly 45 cents on the dollar to investors. Shares of the asset manager slipped over 3% in premarket trading Tuesday and are down nearly 24% so far this year. While peers like Blackstone have eased redemption limits to accommodate demand, Apollo is sticking to its 5% cap, describing the move as a way to preserve value. Even as Apollo has sought to distinguish itself by focusing on loans to large, stable businesses, software remains its largest sector exposure, accounting for 12.3% of the portfolio. This is a critical signal: private credit funds are facing redemption pressure because investors are questioning valuations and liquidity. The fact that Apollo is distributing 45 cents on the dollar suggests that the fund's mark-to-market valuations are significantly higher than what the market will pay. This has systemic implications—if private credit funds are forced to mark down valuations, it could trigger a broader repricing of illiquid assets and expose leverage in the financial system.
We could soon see a SpaceX IPO. Rumors are intensifying that SpaceX could soon file its IPO prospectus—possibly as early as this week. Even more striking are projections that the offering could raise as much as $50 billion, implying a valuation near $1.8 trillion. If that scenario unfolds, it would instantly become one of the most significant public offerings in history. A SpaceX IPO would be transformational for the space economy and would provide a direct way for retail investors to gain exposure to the commercial space industry. The $1.8T valuation implies that markets are pricing in significant upside from Starlink, Starshield, and other SpaceX ventures. This is also a signal of broader market confidence—mega-cap IPOs typically occur when sentiment is strong and liquidity is abundant.
In the meantime, Merck was slightly higher after agreeing to buy Terns Pharmaceuticals for $6.7 billion. This acquisition reflects the intense competition for GLP-1 assets as the obesity drug market expands. Merck is betting that Terns' pipeline will complement its existing portfolio and provide optionality in a market where Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have established early dominance. The $6.7B price tag suggests that pharma companies are willing to pay significant premiums for obesity drug assets, which implies that the market opportunity is larger than consensus estimates.
President Trump sent Tehran a 15-point plan to end the war, with the S&P 500 up 0.75%, or by 49 points. Oil prices fell on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said that Washington and Tehran are "in negotiations right now" and indicated Iran is keen to reach a peace agreement, despite the Islamic Republic denying any direct talks with the U.S. International benchmark Brent crude futures declined 5% to $99.30 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were also down 5.1% at $87.63 per barrel. The immediate catalyst is straightforward: de-escalation reduces the probability of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption, which had been pricing in a 20% global oil supply shock. But the deeper story is about inflation expectations and the Fed's rate path. For three weeks, markets had been pricing in persistent energy inflation that would keep the Fed on hold through 2026. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to around 4.35% on Wednesday, pulling back from eight-month highs amid reports that the US was pursuing talks with Iran to end the conflict. President Donald Trump said Iran had offered a gesture of goodwill in negotiations tied to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli media also indicated that Washington was seeking a one-month ceasefire to facilitate talks, while the New York Times reported that the US had sent Iran a 15-point proposal to resolve the conflict. Still, investors remained skeptical as Tehran denied engaging in any negotiations with the US, while Gulf states signaled readiness to join the war against Iran. Oil prices eased on these developments, providing some relief to markets concerned that surging energy costs could fuel inflation and prompt interest rate hikes. This repricing has downstream consequences: if inflation expectations reset lower, the Fed's neutral rate becomes more accommodative, increasing the odds of rate cuts later this year. The market is now pricing in a softer macro backdrop where geopolitical risk is no longer the dominant driver of asset prices.
💡 Strait of Hormuz — a critical maritime chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes. Disruptions here directly impact global energy prices and inflation expectations. Geopolitical risk premium — the additional yield or price investors demand for holding assets in uncertain geopolitical environments; when risk declines, this premium compresses and asset prices rise.
They also raised their price target to $285 from $65, as it projected AWS revenue growth of +28% Y/Y in 1Q26, +29% Y/Y for 2026E, accelerating to +37% Y/Y in 2027E as its partnerships with Anthropic and OpenAI ramp. This is the first concrete evidence that enterprise AI adoption is moving from pilot phase to production deployment. AWS's dominance in cloud infrastructure means it captures the lion's share of AI capex spending—every dollar of enterprise AI investment flows through AWS's data centers. The acceleration from +29% to +37% signals that AI workloads are scaling faster than consensus expected, which has implications for both Amazon's earnings power and the broader semiconductor supply chain. This also validates the thesis that mega-cap tech's massive AI investments are not speculative but are generating measurable revenue returns.
💡 WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) — the discount rate used to value a company's future cash flows. When interest rates fall or inflation expectations decline, WACC falls, making future earnings more valuable in present-value terms, which drives stock prices higher.
And analysts at UBS just reiterated a buy rating on Microsoft, while lowering its price target to $510 from $600. "At 19x CY26E non-GAAP EPS, we remain Buy-rated, but acknowledge that the narrative around M365/Copilot needs to improve in order for the stock to really re-rate higher," they added. This is a critical signal: UBS is saying that Microsoft's valuation is fair but not compelling unless the company can demonstrate that Copilot is driving measurable productivity gains and adoption in the enterprise. The gap between the old $600 target and the new $510 target reflects a repricing of AI upside—the market is becoming more skeptical that AI will deliver the transformational productivity boost that justified mega-cap tech's 2024-2025 rally. This suggests that mega-cap tech's AI narrative is entering a critical phase where execution and evidence matter more than hype.
💡 M365/Copilot — Microsoft's AI-powered productivity suite integrated into Office 365. Enterprise adoption of Copilot is critical to Microsoft's AI revenue thesis; without measurable productivity gains, adoption will stall.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) was off more than 3%, trading at levels not seen since its close on Feb. 25. The ETF has sunk 23% in 2026 as worries over artificial intelligence disrupting software companies' business models spooked investors. Salesforce was off more than 5%, while ServiceNow fell more than 4%. This reflects a structural concern: if AI can automate software development and customer support, traditional software vendors' moats erode. The market is pricing in a scenario where AI commoditizes software, compressing margins and growth rates. This is a key divergence within tech—cloud infrastructure (AWS, Azure) is benefiting from AI capex, while traditional software is being disrupted by it.
💡 Moat — a competitive advantage that protects a company's market share and pricing power. AI threatens software vendors' moats by automating the tasks their software performs, reducing switching costs and pricing power.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $66.6 million on March 24, reversing prior inflows. Ethereum ETFs extended their negative trend with $40.7 million in outflows. According to data from Farside Investors Bitcoin ETF flows reversed course on March 24, with total net outflows of $66.6 million, signaling renewed caution among institutional investors. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $71,074, down modestly on the day and continuing to hold above the level of $70K and consolidating after recent volatility. The outflows suggest that institutional investors are taking profits after the recent rally, but the fact that BTC held above $70K indicates support is intact. Solana ETFs recorded modest net inflows of $4.5 million on March 24, marking one of the few positive signals across digital asset investment products. Gains were driven primarily by Bitwise's BSOL (+$3.0 million) and Franklin Templeton's SOEZ (+$1.5 million), while other issuers saw limited activity. Solana traded around $92.20, showing relative stability compared to larger assets. While flows remain small in absolute terms, the positive direction suggests emerging institutional interest, particularly as Solana continues to position itself as a high-performance blockchain for payments and applications. The divergence between Bitcoin/Ethereum outflows and Solana inflows suggests a rotation toward higher-beta, higher-growth crypto assets.
💡 ETF flows — the net inflows or outflows of capital into exchange-traded funds tracking an asset. Positive flows indicate institutional buying; negative flows indicate selling. Flows are a real-time signal of institutional positioning and sentiment.
Bitcoin may have reached a price floor and could climb to $150,000 by the end of 2026, according to analysis from Bernstein, shared by Bloomberg. The examination points to a structural shift in market dynamics driven by institutional adoption. The report suggests that increasing participation from asset managers, corporates and financial intermediaries is reshaping Bitcoin from a speculative asset into a more stable, capital-backed store of value. This narrative is critical: if Bitcoin transitions from a speculative asset to an institutional reserve asset (like gold), the volatility profile changes and the valuation floor rises. The $150K target implies a 2x return from current levels, which is achievable if institutional adoption accelerates and Bitcoin's correlation with equities continues to decline.
💡 Institutional adoption — the process by which large asset managers, pension funds, and corporations begin holding crypto as part of their portfolios. This reduces retail speculation and increases price stability.
Octopuses are already known for their intelligence and problem-solving abilities, but a recent discovery reveals an even more alien sensory capability: they can taste with their arms. Scientists studying octopus neurobiology found that the suckers on their arms contain chemoreceptors—specialized cells that detect chemical compounds—allowing them to identify food, toxins, and other substances before bringing them to their mouths. This distributed taste system is a evolutionary adaptation to deep-sea environments where visibility is poor and speed is survival. An octopus can probe a crevice with its arm, taste what's inside, and decide whether to eat it in milliseconds. This also explains why octopuses are so dexterous and independent—each arm can make decisions autonomously based on what it's tasting, without waiting for the central brain to process visual information. It's a reminder that intelligence takes radically different forms in different environments, and that the ocean still holds profound mysteries about how life adapts to extreme conditions.
💡 Chemoreceptors — sensory cells that detect and respond to chemical compounds. In humans, chemoreceptors are concentrated in the nose and mouth; in octopuses, they're distributed across the arms, giving them a decentralized sensory system.