MORNING BRIEF

Friday, April 24, 2026

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Markets Snapshot

April 24, 2026 — 4:00 PM ET close

The S&P 500 rallied 1.05% on Friday as oil prices stabilized and earnings season momentum carried into the final week of April. Mega-cap tech led the charge, with the NASDAQ up 1.64%, as investors rotated back into AI-exposed names on confidence that the Iran conflict is moving toward resolution. The ceasefire extension and Trump's indefinite pause on strikes reduced near-term geopolitical risk, allowing markets to refocus on corporate earnings and AI capex narratives. Energy stocks also gained as crude stabilized above $92, easing stagflation fears that had weighed on sentiment earlier in the week.
Why It Matters: Friday's rally marks a decisive shift in market psychology: from geopolitical risk-off to earnings-driven risk-on. The simultaneous strength in equities, crude stabilization, and VIX compression (-2.97%) signals that institutional money is confident the Iran conflict won't escalate into a prolonged supply shock. This matters because it unlocks the AI trade again—mega-cap tech had been capped by inflation and energy concerns, but with those fears receding, the market is repricing the long-term capex cycle. The 2s/10s spread compressing to 46 bps reflects expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady through mid-2026, giving growth stocks room to run. Watch next week's FOMC for any hawkish surprises from incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh.
📖 Finance Deep Dive: Today's cross-asset moves reveal a classic risk-on unwind. When geopolitical risk recedes, the risk-free rate (10Y Treasury at 4.30%) becomes the anchor for equity valuations via the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Lower geopolitical risk premium means lower equity risk premium, which compresses the discount rate in DCF models and lifts terminal values for growth stocks—especially those with long-duration cash flows like mega-cap tech. The 18 bps decline in the 2s/10s spread (from 64 bps to 46 bps) is critical: it signals the market no longer expects a recession within 2 years, which is why small-caps (Russell 2000 +0.74%) and cyclicals are holding up. Oil's stabilization above $92 is the transmission mechanism: it removes the stagflation tail risk that had been pricing in simultaneous growth slowdown and inflation acceleration. With energy costs moderating, real yields (nominal 10Y minus inflation expectations) are falling, which benefits duration-heavy assets like long-dated equities. The VIX compression to 18.92 reflects realized volatility declining as headline risk fades, allowing carry trades and leveraged positioning to unwind in an orderly fashion. Bitcoin's +3.77% surge is the tell: it's a risk-on barometer that responds to both lower real rates and reduced geopolitical uncertainty.
TXN — Texas Instruments
$185.42 +18.0% Biggest S&P 500 Mover

Texas Instruments surged 18% on Friday, marking its best single-day performance since October 2000, after the chipmaker reported stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings and raised full-year guidance. The rally reflects renewed investor appetite for semiconductor plays as AI infrastructure buildout accelerates and energy costs stabilize. TXN's breakout signals that chip stocks are rotating back into favor after weeks of geopolitical headwinds.

Equities

S&P 500
7137.90
1d: 🟢 +1.05%   YTD: 🟢 +13.2%
NASDAQ
24657.57
1d: 🟢 +1.64%   YTD: 🟢 +14.8%
Dow
49490.03
1d: 🟢 +0.69%   YTD: 🟢 +12.1%
Russell 2000
2785.38
1d: 🟢 +0.74%   YTD: 🟢 +8.9%
Mag 7
66.47
1d: 🟢 +1.73%   YTD: 🟢 +15.3%
Nikkei 225
59500.00
1d: 🟢 +0.60%   YTD: 🟢 +11.2%
Euro Stoxx 50
5880.00
1d: 🔴 (0.40%)   YTD: 🟢 +3.2%
MSCI EAFE
2850.00
1d: 🔴 (0.25%)   YTD: 🟢 +2.8%
MSCI EM
1420.00
1d: 🟢 +0.15%   YTD: 🟢 +5.1%

Rates & Yield Curve

2Y Treasury
3.84%
1d: 🟢 +0.05%   YTD: 🔴 (0.12%)
10Y Treasury
4.30%
1d: 🟢 +0.01%   YTD: 🔴 (0.08%)
30Y Treasury
4.65%
1d: 🔴 (0.02%)   YTD: 🔴 (0.15%)
2s/10s Spread
46 bps
1d: 🔴 (4 bps)   YTD: 🟢 +4 bps
30Y Mortgage Rate
6.85%
1d: 🟢 +0.02%   YTD: 🔴 (0.18%)

FX & Volatility

DXY
98.52
1d: 🟢 +0.11%   YTD: 🔴 (1.2%)
VIX
18.92
1d: 🔴 (2.97%)   YTD: 🔴 (8.5%)

Commodities

Gold
4758.20
1d: 🟢 +0.82%   YTD: 🟢 +8.3%
WTI Crude
92.60
1d: 🟢 +3.27%   YTD: 🟢 +32.1%
Brent Crude
101.50
1d: 🟢 +3.15%   YTD: 🟢 +31.8%
Natural Gas
2.45
1d: 🔴 (2.15%)   YTD: 🟢 +18.2%
Copper
4.82
1d: 🟢 +0.95%   YTD: 🟢 +12.4%

Crypto

BTC
78567.99
1d: 🟢 +3.77%   YTD: 🟢 +42.3%
ETH
2409.56
1d: 🔴 (0.92%)   YTD: 🟢 +28.5%
SOL
84.80
1d: 🔴 (3.61%)   YTD: 🔴 (71.2%)
Economic Backdrop Fed Funds: 3.50–3.75%CPI: 3.3% YoY (March 2026)Unemployment: 3.9% (March 2026)Next FOMC: May 6-7 — 95% chance of hold
Prediction Markets
Will the Fed cut rates at the May FOMC meeting? 5% CME FedWatch
Will the S&P 500 close above 7,200 by end of April? 78% Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $100K by end of Q2 2026? 62% Kalshi
Will US inflation fall below 3% by June 2026? 41% Kalshi
Will the Iran ceasefire hold through May 2026? 68% Polymarket
87

Oil Prices Stabilize Above $92 as Iran Ceasefire Holds; Energy Stocks Rally

  • WTI crude rose 3.27% to $92.60 on Friday as the Iran ceasefire extension reduced near-term supply disruption fears.
  • Energy stocks rallied in sympathy, with the sector benefiting from both higher oil prices and reduced geopolitical risk premium.

Oil prices stabilized above $92 per barrel on Friday as the Iran ceasefire extension announced by Trump removed the immediate risk of further supply disruptions. WTI crude gained 3.27% while Brent crude rose 3.15% to $101.50, as traders reassessed the probability of a prolonged conflict. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with Iran maintaining control of the strategic waterway and the US blockade still in place, but the indefinite ceasefire extension signals that both sides are moving toward negotiation rather than escalation. Energy stocks rallied in sympathy, with the sector outperforming the broader market as investors rotated back into cyclicals. The stabilization in oil prices is critical for inflation expectations: if crude stays in the $90-$100 range, the Fed can look through the March energy spike and focus on underlying services inflation, which has moderated. However, any escalation in the conflict could quickly push oil back toward $110+, reigniting stagflation fears.

72

Japan Core Inflation Accelerates to 1.8% on Energy Costs; BOJ Expected to Hold Rates

  • Japan's core inflation rose to 1.8% in March, the first acceleration in five months, driven by higher energy costs from the Iran conflict.
  • The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates at 0.75% at its April 27-28 meeting, but may signal concern about inflation risks.

Japan's core inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 1.8% in March, the first monthly increase in five months, as energy costs surged due to the Iran conflict. Headline inflation came in at 1.5%, still below the BOJ's 2% target, but the acceleration in core inflation signals that energy price shocks are beginning to filter through the economy. The BOJ is widely expected to hold rates at 0.75% at its April 27-28 meeting, but the inflation data may prompt a more hawkish tone in the policy statement. Citi analysts expect the hold to be 'likely hawkish,' citing concerns about yen depreciation and the risk of the central bank falling behind the inflation curve. If crude oil prices remain elevated and the ceasefire doesn't lead to a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Japan's core inflation could rise toward 3% by year-end, forcing the BOJ to reconsider its accommodative stance.

68

ServiceNow Plunges 18% After Missing Guidance; Iran Conflict Cited as Headwind

  • ServiceNow shares fell nearly 18% after the company reported Q1 earnings that beat on revenue but missed on guidance, citing the Iran conflict as a drag on enterprise spending.
  • The miss signals that geopolitical uncertainty is still weighing on software spending, even as mega-cap tech rallies on AI optimism.

ServiceNow shares plummeted nearly 18% on Thursday after the company reported first-quarter earnings that beat on the top and bottom lines but provided guidance below Wall Street expectations. Management cited the Iran conflict as a headwind to enterprise software spending, noting that customers are delaying discretionary IT projects amid geopolitical uncertainty. The miss is notable because it contrasts with the broader mega-cap tech rally driven by AI optimism—while companies like Nvidia and Meta are benefiting from AI capex acceleration, enterprise software vendors like ServiceNow are facing pushback from customers worried about macroeconomic headwinds. The stock's decline suggests that not all tech companies are insulated from geopolitical risk, and that software spending (which is more discretionary than infrastructure capex) remains vulnerable to uncertainty.

65

IBM Falls 8% Despite Beating Earnings; Guidance Disappoints on Confluent Acquisition Dilution

  • IBM shares fell 8% after the company beat on Q1 earnings but maintained full-year guidance, disappointing investors who expected upside.
  • The company's March acquisition of Confluent is creating near-term dilution, offsetting productivity gains from operational efficiency initiatives.

IBM shares declined 8% on Thursday after the company reported first-quarter earnings that beat on both revenue and earnings per share but maintained its full-year guidance, disappointing investors. While Goldman Sachs and Bank of America reiterated buy ratings, both banks cut their price targets, citing concerns about dilution from the March acquisition of data streaming platform Confluent. IBM's operational efficiency initiatives are offsetting some of the acquisition dilution, but the company's guidance suggests limited upside for the remainder of 2026. The miss highlights a broader challenge for legacy tech companies: while they're investing in AI and modernization, near-term earnings are being pressured by integration costs and competitive headwinds.

Top Story

Trump's Fed Pick Kevin Warsh Pledges Independence, Signals Hawkish Stance on Inflation

Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick to lead the Federal Reserve starting next month, testified before the Senate Banking Committee on April 21 that he would preserve the Fed's independence from political pressure while advancing structural reforms to monetary policy. Warsh, a former Fed governor with deep Wall Street ties, pledged to use both interest rate and balance sheet tools to manage inflation and employment, signaling a more hawkish approach than markets had anticipated. His testimony surprised investors who expected Trump's nominee to be a rate-cut advocate; instead, Warsh emphasized the need to avoid falling behind the inflation curve and expressed concern about currency depreciation risks. The market reaction was muted but telling: the 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.30%, suggesting traders are pricing in a Warsh-led Fed that will be less accommodative than Trump hoped. If confirmed, Warsh takes over at a critical moment—the Fed is holding rates at 3.50-3.75% with inflation still at 3.3% YoY, and geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict continue to threaten energy prices and growth expectations.

💡 The Federal Reserve's dual mandate requires it to pursue both maximum employment and stable prices (around 2% inflation). Warsh's emphasis on this dual mandate, combined with his hawkish inflation rhetoric, signals he won't prioritize rate cuts to appease Trump, which is a significant departure from Trump's public criticism of Powell for keeping rates 'too high.'

Tech & AI

Meta Announces 10% Workforce Reduction as AI Investment Accelerates

  • Meta is laying off 10% of its workforce (roughly 8,000 employees) to fund aggressive AI development and infrastructure buildout.
  • The move signals that mega-cap tech is willing to sacrifice near-term headcount to secure long-term AI dominance, even as the broader economy faces uncertainty.

Meta confirmed on Thursday that it will cut 10% of its workforce, equating to approximately 8,000 employees, as the company doubles down on artificial intelligence research and data center expansion. CEO Mark Zuckerberg framed the layoffs as a necessary reallocation of capital toward AI capabilities and infrastructure, signaling that Meta views the AI arms race as existential. The move comes as Meta's stock has rallied over 20% since April 7, driven by investor confidence in the company's AI strategy and the resolution of geopolitical headwinds that had pressured tech valuations. This is the second major tech layoff wave in 2026, following similar cuts at other mega-caps, and reflects a broader industry shift: companies are willing to reduce near-term operating leverage to fund long-duration AI capex. The market interpreted the announcement positively, viewing it as a sign of disciplined capital allocation rather than distress.

Arm Holdings Breaks Above $200 on AI Chip Pivot and Meta Partnership

  • Arm Holdings surged past $200 per share after announcing a strategic partnership with Meta to design custom AI chips.
  • The deal validates Arm's pivot toward AI-specific processor design and positions the company as a critical infrastructure play in the AI buildout cycle.

Arm Holdings broke through the $200 resistance level on Friday after announcing a partnership with Meta to develop custom AI accelerators based on Arm's architecture. The deal is significant because it signals that mega-cap tech companies are moving beyond reliance on Nvidia GPUs and building proprietary silicon to reduce costs and improve performance for their specific AI workloads. Investor Bill Baruch highlighted the catalyst: Arm is 'following the narrative' of AI infrastructure consolidation, and the Meta deal proves the company's architecture is competitive for next-generation AI chips. Arm's stock has been on a tear since mid-April, driven by the broader AI capex narrative and recognition that the company is positioned to capture licensing fees from every major AI chip design. The partnership also reflects a structural shift in the semiconductor industry—as AI capex scales to $775B+ annually, companies are willing to invest in custom silicon rather than rely solely on off-the-shelf solutions.

Cluster Protocol Raises $5M for CodeXero, Browser-Native AI IDE for Developers

  • Cluster Protocol closed a $5M funding round for CodeXero, a decentralized AI coding IDE that runs natively in web browsers.
  • The funding brings total capital for the project to $7.75M and signals growing venture interest in AI developer tools that prioritize decentralization and accessibility.

Cluster Protocol announced a $5M funding round for CodeXero, a browser-native AI-powered integrated development environment (IDE) designed for EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine) developers. The funding round brings total capital raised to $7.75M and includes backing from prominent crypto-focused VCs who see CodeXero as a critical tool for accelerating decentralized application development. CodeXero's key innovation is its ability to run entirely in the browser without requiring local installation, lowering the barrier to entry for developers building on Ethereum and other EVM-compatible chains. The funding reflects a broader trend: as AI coding assistants mature, venture capital is flowing toward tools that integrate AI with blockchain infrastructure, betting that decentralized development will be a major category in the 2026-2027 cycle.

Crypto & Web3

Bitcoin Breaks $78K on Spot ETF Inflows and Iran Ceasefire Optimism

  • Bitcoin surged 3.77% to $78,567 on Friday as spot ETF inflows accelerated and geopolitical risk receded with the Iran ceasefire extension.
  • The move signals that institutional capital is rotating back into crypto as a risk-on asset, with the ceasefire removing a key headwind that had capped the rally.

Bitcoin rallied 3.77% to close at $78,567 on Friday, breaking through key resistance as spot ETF inflows resumed and the Iran conflict moved toward de-escalation. The ceasefire extension announced by Trump on Thursday removed a major tail risk that had been suppressing crypto valuations—geopolitical uncertainty had kept risk-off sentiment elevated, but with the conflict appearing to stabilize, institutional money is rotating back into duration-heavy assets like Bitcoin. The move is significant because it shows Bitcoin is behaving as a risk-on barometer: when geopolitical risk recedes and real rates fall, Bitcoin benefits from both lower opportunity costs (fewer reasons to hold cash) and reduced tail-risk hedging demand. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have been steady this week, suggesting that institutional investors are using the ceasefire as a signal to re-enter positions. Bitcoin is now up 42.3% YTD, with the $80K level in sight if the ceasefire holds and the Fed signals it will remain patient on rate cuts.

Ethereum Faces Headwinds as Solana Consolidates; DeFi Fundamentals Remain Intact

  • Ethereum fell 0.92% to $2,409 while Solana declined 3.61% to $84.80, as altcoins face profit-taking after the week's rally.
  • Despite price weakness, DeFi protocol TVL and on-chain activity remain strong, suggesting the selloff is speculative position unwinding rather than fundamental deterioration.

Ethereum and Solana both retreated on Friday as altcoins faced profit-taking after a strong week driven by ceasefire optimism. Ethereum fell 0.92% to $2,409, while Solana dropped 3.61% to $84.80, marking the worst performer in the top 10 cryptocurrencies. However, on-chain metrics tell a different story: DeFi protocol TVL (total value locked) has remained stable, and Solana's network activity stayed robust with $57B in DeFi volume recorded in March. This disconnect between price and fundamentals suggests the selloff is driven by leveraged position unwinding and profit-taking rather than deteriorating network health. Solana is consolidating between $82-$93 with dense liquidity overhead, setting up a potential breakout move in either direction. The broader narrative: altcoins are underperforming Bitcoin (which is up 3.77% today) because Bitcoin dominance is rising—capital is flowing from alts to BTC as risk-off sentiment persists despite the ceasefire. Watch for a reversal if Bitcoin establishes a clear breakout above $80K.

What's Ahead

Monday, April 28: FOMC Meeting Concludes (April 28-29) — The Federal Reserve's policy committee will conclude its two-day meeting and announce its decision on the federal funds rate. Markets are pricing in a 95% probability of a hold at 3.50-3.75%, but Kevin Warsh's recent hawkish testimony may influence the tone of the statement. Watch for any signals about the timing of future rate cuts.
Tuesday, April 29: Earnings: Magnificent Seven Earnings Week Continues — Five of the Magnificent Seven are expected to report earnings this week, including major names like Nvidia, Tesla, and others. These results will be critical for validating the AI capex narrative and determining whether mega-cap valuations can sustain their recent rally.
Friday, May 2: April Jobs Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) — The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release April employment data, including nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage growth. With inflation still elevated at 3.3% and the Fed holding rates steady, the jobs report will be scrutinized for signs of labor market softening that could justify future rate cuts.

Something Fascinating

SpaceX's Targeted IPO Valuation of $1.75 Trillion Would Make It the Largest IPO in History

SpaceX is preparing for an initial public offering at a targeted valuation of $1.75 trillion, a figure that would make it the largest IPO in history and position the rocket and satellite company as one of the world's most valuable enterprises. At that valuation, SpaceX would rank ahead of Saudi Aramco (which debuted at $1.7T in 2019) and would be worth more than double JPMorgan Chase, the largest US bank, or Eli Lilly, the world's largest pharmaceutical company. Elon Musk owns approximately 42% of SpaceX, meaning a successful IPO at that valuation would put him on track to become the first trillionaire. The valuation reflects investor enthusiasm for SpaceX's dominance in commercial spaceflight, satellite internet (Starlink), and its role in the emerging space economy. However, the IPO timing remains uncertain, and regulatory scrutiny around Musk's other ventures (Tesla, X) could complicate the process. If SpaceX does go public at $1.75T, it would signal that the market is pricing in a multi-trillion-dollar space economy over the next decade.

💡 An IPO (initial public offering) is when a private company sells shares to the public for the first time, raising capital and becoming publicly traded. SpaceX's targeted valuation is based on private market transactions and investor demand, not yet official until the company files with the SEC and prices the offering.

Morning Brief — Friday, April 24, 2026

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