MORNING BRIEF

Wednesday, May 13, 2026

☀️ Somewhere in the Pacific right now, a sea turtle that hatched in 1962 is still just vibing—no inflation worries, no geopolitical drama, just pure reptilian zen.

Markets Snapshot

May 13, 2026 — 4:00 PM ET close

Stocks finished mixed as hotter-than-expected producer prices (PPI +1.4% in April vs. +0.5% expected) reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady through year-end. Energy prices, driven by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, accounted for over 40% of the inflation surprise. Tech stocks underperformed as higher rates reduce the present value of future earnings, while defensive sectors and financials held up better. The dollar edged higher on inflation expectations, and oil prices retreated slightly after Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal.
Why It Matters: The inflation surprise signals that the Fed's hold-steady stance is locked in—markets now price zero rate cuts this year and potential hikes in 2027 if energy prices stay elevated. This is a structural shift: the Iran war has created a persistent supply shock that's bleeding into core inflation (core CPI at 2.8% YoY), eroding the Fed's ability to cut even if growth slows. For equities, this means multiple compression is likely to continue, especially for high-growth tech names that benefit most from lower rates. The real risk is if oil stays above $100/barrel and wage pressures accelerate, forcing the Fed to hike rather than cut—a scenario that would reprrice the entire equity market.
📖 Finance Deep Dive: Today's moves illustrate the transmission mechanism between energy shocks and financial markets. When oil prices rise due to supply disruption (Hormuz closure), they feed directly into headline CPI, which then anchors inflation expectations higher. This pushes real yields (nominal yields minus expected inflation) higher, which increases the discount rate used in DCF models to value equities. For a high-growth tech stock with most cash flows in the distant future, a 50 bps rise in real yields can cut valuations by 10-15%. Meanwhile, the flattening 2s/10s spread (now 47 bps) reflects market expectations that the Fed will hold short rates steady while long rates rise on inflation fears—a classic 'higher for longer' scenario. Gold's resilience despite higher real yields suggests investors are pricing in tail risks (geopolitical escalation, stagflation) that justify holding non-yielding assets. The dollar's stability despite inflation surprises reflects the fact that US inflation is still lower than in Europe and Japan, preserving the Fed's relative hawkishness.
NEBIUS — Nebius Group
$156.40 +16.3% Biggest S&P 500 Mover

Nebius Group, an AI cloud infrastructure firm, surged 16.3% after reporting a nearly eightfold rise in quarterly revenue. The company's explosive growth reflects surging demand for AI compute capacity as enterprises scale generative AI workloads. This signals that infrastructure providers are capturing outsized value from the AI buildout, even as chip stocks face near-term headwinds from inflation concerns.

Equities

S&P 500
7400.96
1d: 🔴 (0.16%)   YTD: 🟢 +8.4%
NASDAQ
26088.20
1d: 🔴 (0.71%)   YTD: 🟢 +6.2%
Dow
49760.56
1d: 🟢 +0.11%   YTD: 🟢 +5.8%
Russell 2000
2843.51
1d: 🔴 (0.95%)   YTD: 🔴 (2.1%)
Mag 7
69.12
1d: 🔴 (0.45%)   YTD: 🟢 +4.1%
Nikkei 225
63272.00
1d: 🟢 +0.84%   YTD: 🟢 +12.5%
Euro Stoxx 50
5808.45
1d: 🔴 (1.48%)   YTD: 🔴 (3.2%)
MSCI EAFE
2847.50
1d: 🔴 (0.92%)   YTD: 🔴 (1.8%)
MSCI EM
1089.30
1d: 🔴 (1.15%)   YTD: 🟢 +2.3%

Rates & Yield Curve

2Y Treasury
3.95%
1d: 🟢 +2.0 bps   YTD: 🟢 +145 bps
10Y Treasury
4.42%
1d: 🟢 +3.5 bps   YTD: 🟢 +98 bps
30Y Treasury
4.98%
1d: 🟢 +2.0 bps   YTD: 🟢 +75 bps
2s/10s Spread
47 bps
1d: 🟢 +1.5 bps   YTD: 🔴 (47 bps)
30Y Mortgage Rate
6.37%
1d: 🟢 +3 bps   YTD: 🟢 +82 bps

FX & Volatility

DXY
98.28
1d: 🔴 (0.02%)   YTD: 🟢 +1.2%
VIX
17.99
1d: 🔴 (2.12%)   YTD: 🔴 (18.5%)

Commodities

Gold
4679.84
1d: 🔴 (0.75%)   YTD: 🟢 +46.9%
WTI Crude
101.60
1d: 🟢 +4.26%   YTD: 🟢 +62.3%
Brent Crude
107.05
1d: 🔴 (0.67%)   YTD: 🟢 +61.97%
Natural Gas
2.85
1d: 🟢 +1.8%   YTD: 🟢 +28.4%
Copper
4.92
1d: 🟢 +0.4%   YTD: 🟢 +13.2%

Crypto

BTC
80734.55
1d: 🔴 (1.49%)   YTD: 🟢 +38.2%
ETH
2291.26
1d: 🔴 (1.8%)   YTD: 🟢 +22.5%
SOL
95.68
1d: 🔴 (2.1%)   YTD: 🔴 (18.3%)
Economic Backdrop Fed Funds: 3.50–3.75%CPI: 3.8% YoY (April 2026)Unemployment: Data pendingNext FOMC: June 16–17 — 0% chance of cut (hold expected)
Prediction Markets
Will the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC meeting (June 16-17)? 2% CME FedWatch
Will the S&P 500 hit 7,500 by end of Q2 2026? 38% Polymarket
Will Brent crude stay above $100/barrel through June? 72% Kalshi
Will Bitcoin reach $100K by end of 2026? 44% Polymarket
Will US inflation fall below 3% by August 2026? 18% Kalshi
94

US-Iran Ceasefire on 'Life Support' as Trump Rejects Latest Peace Proposal—Oil Stays Elevated

  • President Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal, saying the ceasefire is on 'massive life support' and signaling potential resumption of military operations.
  • The stalemate keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, maintaining oil prices above $100/barrel and fueling persistent inflation concerns.

President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal on Tuesday, stating that the ceasefire between the US and Iran is on 'massive life support' and signaling that military operations could resume. Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week to discuss the conflict, though he downplayed the need for Beijing's help. The stalemate has kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, with both US and Iranian forces restricting traffic through the critical shipping route. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the market is losing roughly 100 million barrels of supply each week, and prolonged disruptions could delay market normalization until next year. The geopolitical impasse is now the dominant driver of oil prices and inflation expectations, making it the single most important variable for Fed policy and equity valuations.

72

Morgan Stanley Raises S&P 500 Target to 8,000 from 7,800—Says Strong Earnings Justify Rally

  • Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 S&P 500 target to 8,000, citing strong corporate earnings and room for further upside despite inflation headwinds.
  • The call suggests that the market's recent record highs are justified by earnings growth, though it assumes the Fed holds rates steady.

Morgan Stanley raised its annual S&P 500 target to 8,000 from 7,800 on Wednesday, arguing that US stocks have room to rally as companies continue to post strong earnings. The call reflects confidence that the earnings cycle can offset the headwind from higher rates, though it implicitly assumes the Fed holds steady and inflation doesn't accelerate further. The 8,000 target implies roughly 8% upside from current levels, which is modest relative to the volatility in rates and oil prices. The call is notable because it comes amid a period of mixed signals: the S&P 500 is near all-time highs, but the Russell 2000 is down 2.1% YTD, and the Nasdaq is underperforming the Dow, suggesting that the market is rotating away from growth and toward value.

58

India Raises Gold Import Tariff to 15% from 6%—Demand Shock Weighs on Prices

  • India raised import tariffs on gold and silver to 15% from 6%, a move aimed at curbing imports and supporting domestic mining.
  • The tariff hike is expected to dampen global gold demand, adding to downward pressure on prices despite inflation hedging demand.

India raised import tariffs on gold and silver to 15% from 6% on Wednesday, a protectionist move aimed at reducing imports and supporting domestic mining. The tariff hike is expected to dampen global gold demand, as India is the world's largest gold consumer. Gold prices fell for a second straight session on Wednesday, slipping to $4,680 an ounce, as rising inflation dimmed expectations for interest rate cuts and the tariff news weighed on sentiment. The move reflects India's broader push toward self-sufficiency in precious metals, though it comes at a time when global gold demand is already under pressure from higher real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations).

Top Story

Producer Prices Surge 1.4% in April, Highest Since Early 2022—Fed Locked Into Hold Through Year-End

The producer price index (PPI) for final demand surged 1.4% in April, marking the largest monthly gain since early 2022 and crushing economist expectations for a 0.5% increase. Energy prices, which jumped 3.8% on the month, accounted for over 40% of the headline gain—a direct result of the ongoing US-Iran conflict and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supply. This follows Tuesday's consumer inflation report showing headline CPI at 3.8% YoY, the highest since May 2023. The surprise has effectively locked the Federal Reserve into a hold-steady posture through the remainder of 2026. Markets now price zero probability of a rate cut at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting and are beginning to price in potential rate hikes in late 2026 or early 2027 if energy prices remain elevated. The structural issue is that this inflation is supply-driven (oil disruption) rather than demand-driven, meaning the Fed cannot easily cut rates to stimulate growth without risking further price acceleration. For investors, this signals that the 'higher for longer' rate regime is now the base case, which will continue to pressure valuations in high-growth tech stocks that depend on low discount rates.

💡 Producer Price Index (PPI) — measures the average change in prices received by domestic producers for their output. Unlike CPI (consumer prices), PPI captures wholesale inflation earlier in the supply chain, often signaling where consumer prices are headed in 3-6 months.

Tech & AI

Cerebras Systems IPO Prices Thursday Amid Chipmaker Mania—AI Inference Play Backed by Amazon, OpenAI

  • Cerebras, an AI chip startup, is set to price its IPO on Thursday after a 2024 national security review derailed its initial attempt.
  • The company claims to be the 'market leader in high-speed AI inference' and has partnerships with Amazon and OpenAI, positioning it to capture value from enterprise AI deployment.

Cerebras Systems, a startup focused on AI inference chips, is set to price its IPO on Thursday, marking the biggest tech listing of 2026 so far. The company's initial IPO attempt in 2024 was derailed by a national security review, but the company has since secured partnerships with Amazon and OpenAI, strengthening its story. Cerebras specializes in high-speed AI inference—the process of running trained models to generate predictions—which is becoming a critical bottleneck as enterprises scale generative AI applications. The IPO timing reflects investor appetite for AI infrastructure plays, though the company will face intense competition from Nvidia, AMD, and custom chip efforts from hyperscalers. The deal signals that the market is willing to fund specialized AI chip companies if they can demonstrate differentiated technology and enterprise traction.

💡 AI Inference — the process of running a trained machine learning model on new data to generate predictions or outputs. Unlike training (which requires massive compute), inference is often latency-sensitive and can be optimized for specific hardware, creating opportunities for specialized chip makers.

Tesla Launches Financing Program in China, Cuts Down Payments as EV Market Share Erodes

  • Tesla cut down payments for Shanghai-made Model 3s by 30% through a new financing program, signaling pressure from domestic Chinese EV rivals.
  • The move reflects Tesla's struggle to maintain market share in the world's largest EV market, where BYD and other local competitors have gained ground.

Tesla launched a new financing program in China on Wednesday, reducing down payments for Shanghai-made Model 3s from 79,900 yuan to 55,900 yuan (a 30% cut) for buyers choosing a five-year auto loan. The move comes as Tesla has lost ground to domestic rivals like BYD in the world's largest EV market, where price competition has intensified. Separately, Tesla ended production of the Model S and Model X in early May after a 14-year run, signaling a strategic pivot toward AI, robotics, and the Optimus humanoid robot. The financing program is a defensive measure to maintain volume in China, where Tesla's market share has compressed amid aggressive pricing from local competitors. This reflects a broader trend: as EV adoption matures, the market is shifting from growth to competition on price and features, pressuring legacy automakers and Tesla alike.

Palantir CEO Says He's on Kremlin Hit List Over AI Support for Ukraine

  • Palantir CEO Alex Karp revealed that he is on a Kremlin hit list due to the company's sharing of AI technology with the Ukrainian military.
  • Palantir's AI software helps Ukraine process intelligence data in real time, improving targeting efficiency and operations against Russian forces.

Palantir Technologies CEO Alex Karp disclosed that he is on a Kremlin hit list over the company's decision to share AI technology with the Ukrainian military, according to reporting from The Times of London. Palantir's AI software helps Ukraine's military process vast amounts of intelligence data in real time, improving the efficiency of targeting and operations against Russian forces. Karp said the company was initially viewed as 'crazy' for entering Ukraine when the country faced wholesale invasion, but four years later Ukraine is 'doing pretty well, if not very well.' The disclosure underscores the geopolitical stakes of AI technology and the role that private companies are playing in modern warfare. For Palantir, the Ukraine engagement has become a key part of its narrative around real-world AI impact, though it also exposes the company to geopolitical risk.

Crypto & Web3

JPMorgan Files Registration for OnChain Liquidity Token Money Market Fund (JLTXX)

  • JPMorgan filed an SEC registration statement to launch a tokenized money market fund, trading under ticker JLTXX.
  • The move signals institutional adoption of blockchain-based financial products and represents a major step toward integrating traditional finance with crypto infrastructure.

JPMorgan filed a registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday to launch the JPMorgan OnChain Liquidity-Token Money Market Fund, trading under the ticker JLTXX. The fund will offer tokenized exposure to money market instruments, allowing institutional investors to hold short-duration, low-risk assets on blockchain infrastructure. The filing represents a significant milestone in the convergence of traditional finance and crypto, as major banks move beyond custody and trading to offer native blockchain-based products. Money market funds are a natural entry point for institutional adoption because they offer stable value, regulatory clarity, and immediate utility for treasury management. JPMorgan's move signals confidence that tokenized finance is moving from niche to mainstream, and it will likely accelerate similar offerings from other major financial institutions.

Solana ETF Inflows Stabilize After Six-Month Decline—Institutional Demand Holds Floor

  • Solana spot ETF inflows declined for six consecutive months through April, falling from $419M in November to $40M in April, but institutional demand is holding the price floor.
  • The stabilization suggests that despite declining retail enthusiasm, institutional investors remain committed to SOL as a long-term infrastructure play.

Solana's spot ETF inflows have declined for six consecutive months, dropping from $419.38M in November 2025 to just $39.93M in April 2026, the weakest month since the products launched in October 2025. Despite the declining inflows, SOL has held relatively stable, suggesting that institutional demand is providing a price floor even as retail enthusiasm wanes. The stabilization is significant because it indicates that the initial ETF-driven rally has matured into a more sustainable institutional base. Solana's technical roadmap—including the Firedancer validator client upgrade and Alpenglow finality improvements—remains on track, and developer migration to Solana-first strategies continues. The key risk is if May ETF inflows fall below April's level, which could trigger a breakdown in the technical pattern and activate a 19% downside target. For now, the stabilization suggests that Solana has found a new equilibrium price supported by institutional conviction rather than retail FOMO.

What's Ahead

Thursday, May 14: Cerebras Systems IPO Pricing & Listing — The AI chip startup will price its IPO on Thursday and list on Friday, marking the largest tech IPO of 2026 so far. The company's partnerships with Amazon and OpenAI position it as a key player in the AI inference infrastructure space.
Friday, May 15: Kevin Warsh Officially Becomes Federal Reserve Chair — Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends today, and Kevin Warsh takes over. Warsh is expected to maintain a hawkish stance on inflation and is unlikely to cut rates anytime soon, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative.
Week of May 19-23: Retail Sales Data & Trump-Xi Summit Outcomes — Retail sales figures will be scrutinized for evidence that higher gasoline and energy costs are squeezing consumer spending. Separately, outcomes from Trump's China summit will be monitored for progress on trade and Iran conflict resolution.

Something Fascinating

Hantavirus Outbreak on Dutch Cruise Ship Sparks Vaccine Stock Rally—But Gains Don't Stick

The World Health Organization flagged an outbreak of hantavirus, a fatal viral respiratory disease spread by rodents, on the MV Hondius cruise ship sailing the Atlantic in early May. The news triggered a brief spike in stocks of companies developing hantavirus vaccines, but the gains didn't stick as health authorities noted that human transmission is rare and the public health risk is low. The episode illustrates how markets react to tail risks and how quickly sentiment can shift once the immediate threat is assessed. It's a reminder that in an era of real-time information and social media, even low-probability events can move markets—but only until the market's collective intelligence catches up to the actual risk.

Morning Brief — Wednesday, May 13, 2026

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