MORNING BRIEF

Thursday, August 13, 2026

☀️ Somewhere right now, a sea turtle that hatched in 1962 is still just vibing in the Pacific—living proof that patience and persistence actually work.

Markets Snapshot

August 12, 2026 — 4:00 PM ET close

Stocks rallied on moderating inflation data released Wednesday, with July CPI printing at 3.4% YoY—matching expectations and signaling the energy-driven spike earlier in 2026 is cooling. The tame monthly reading of +0.1% (seasonally adjusted) and core CPI of +0.2% reduced urgency for a September Fed rate hike, pushing market-implied probability down to 35% from 50% earlier in the week. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 2-year dropping 6 basis points to 4.14%, as investors repriced the Fed's path. Tech stocks led gains on renewed confidence in a dovish pivot, while small-caps (Russell 2000 +0.61%) outperformed, reflecting broadening risk appetite.
Why It Matters: The inflation print marks a critical inflection point: after months of energy-fueled price pressures tied to Middle East tensions, disinflation is now the dominant narrative. This shifts the Fed's calculus from hawkish hold to potential cuts later in 2026, which is bullish for equities, bonds, and rate-sensitive growth stocks. The simultaneous rally in Treasuries, equities, and small-caps signals a risk-on regime where investors are rotating out of defensive positioning. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains a wild card—any escalation could reignite energy inflation and force the Fed to recalibrate, making geopolitical developments the key variable to watch.
📖 Finance Deep Dive: Today's moves illustrate the inverse relationship between inflation expectations and bond prices: as CPI cooled, the 10-year yield fell 5 basis points, pushing bond prices higher. This decline in real yields (nominal yield minus inflation expectations) is crucial because it anchors equity valuations through the discount rate in DCF models—lower real yields reduce the hurdle rate for future cash flows, making equities more attractive relative to bonds. The 2s/10s spread widening slightly to 46 bps reflects a steepening curve, which historically signals growth expectations stabilizing rather than recession fears. The VIX's 4.78% drop to 14.55 shows volatility compression as tail risks (Fed hikes, inflation surprises) have diminished. Meanwhile, the dollar's flatness (DXY +0.01%) despite falling yields suggests the Fed's rate-cut path is now priced in globally, reducing the carry-trade unwind risk that plagued markets in July. Gold's modest decline (-0.07%) despite lower real yields reflects profit-taking after a strong run, but the metal remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty and the structural shift toward lower rates.
SMCI — Super Micro Computer
$842.50 +14.8% Biggest S&P 500 Mover

Super Micro Computer surged on Wednesday after raising its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance, signaling robust demand for AI infrastructure servers. The chipmaker's stronger-than-expected outlook reflects accelerating enterprise spending on artificial intelligence hardware, particularly from hyperscalers building out data centers. This move underscores the ongoing AI capex cycle's strength and positions SMCI as a key beneficiary of the infrastructure buildout supporting large language models and generative AI applications.

Equities

S&P 500
7748.50
1d: 🟢 +0.26%   YTD: 🟢 +13.7%
NASDAQ
26588.49
1d: 🟢 +0.54%   YTD: 🟢 +17.8%
Dow
53770.27
1d: 🔴 (0.04%)   YTD: 🟢 +8.2%
Russell 2000
3045.48
1d: 🟢 +0.61%   YTD: 🟢 +5.1%
Mag 7
69.11
1d: 🟢 +0.86%   YTD: 🟢 +32.18%
Nikkei 225
68609.92
1d: 🟢 +1.61%   YTD: 🟢 +18.4%
Euro Stoxx 50
6533.99
1d: 🔴 (0.26%)   YTD: 🟢 +6.8%
MSCI EAFE
2847.33
1d: 🟢 +0.18%   YTD: 🟢 +9.2%
MSCI EM
1156.42
1d: 🔴 (0.12%)   YTD: 🟢 +3.4%

Rates & Yield Curve

2Y Treasury
4.19%
1d: 🔴 (6 bps)   YTD: 🔴 (131 bps)
10Y Treasury
4.65%
1d: 🔴 (5 bps)   YTD: 🔴 (85 bps)
30Y Treasury
5.24%
1d: 🟢 +5 bps   YTD: 🔴 (41 bps)
2s/10s Spread
46 bps
1d: 🟢 +1 bps   YTD: 🟢 +46 bps
30Y Mortgage Rate
6.82%
1d: 🔴 (8 bps)   YTD: 🔴 (94 bps)

FX & Volatility

DXY
100.01
1d: 🟢 +0.01%   YTD: 🟢 +2.1%
VIX
14.55
1d: 🔴 (4.78%)   YTD: 🔴 (38.2%)

Commodities

Gold
4464.30
1d: 🔴 (0.07%)   YTD: 🟢 +18.3%
WTI Crude
83.18
1d: 🟢 +0.67%   YTD: 🟢 +31.2%
Brent Crude
87.92
1d: 🔴 (1.19%)   YTD: 🟢 +31.53%
Natural Gas
2.84
1d: 🔴 (2.1%)   YTD: 🟢 +12.4%
Copper
4.18
1d: 🟢 +0.24%   YTD: 🟢 +8.7%

Crypto

BTC
63640.81
1d: 🔴 (0.70%)   YTD: 🟢 +58.2%
ETH
1882.85
1d: 🔴 (1.28%)   YTD: 🟢 +42.1%
SOL
75.94
1d: 🔴 (0.98%)   YTD: 🔴 (74.2%)
Economic Backdrop Fed Funds: 3.50–3.75%CPI: 3.4% YoY (July 2026)Unemployment: 4.1% (July 2026)Next FOMC: September 18 — 35% chance of hike
Prediction Markets
Will the Fed hike rates in September 2026? 35% CME FedWatch
Will the S&P 500 close above 7800 by end of August? 68% Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by end of Q3 2026? 42% Kalshi
Will US unemployment stay below 4.5% through September? 71% Polymarket
Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen by September 30? 38% Kalshi
78

US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Negotiations Remain Deadlocked as Trump Claims 'Total Control'

  • President Trump said the US has 'total control' over the Strait of Hormuz, raising doubts about near-term resolution of the blockade.
  • Oil prices remain volatile as geopolitical risk persists, with Brent crude down 1.19% but still elevated at $87.92 amid uncertainty.

Negotiations between the US and Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global shipping chokepoint—remain stalled, with President Trump's recent comments suggesting a hardening stance. Trump claimed the US has 'total control' over the waterway, a rhetorical escalation that contradicts earlier signals of diplomatic progress from Pakistan's defense minister. The impasse is keeping oil markets on edge: while Brent crude fell 1.19% on Wednesday, it remains elevated at $87.92, reflecting lingering geopolitical premium. Any escalation could reignite energy inflation and force the Fed to recalibrate its dovish pivot, making this the key tail risk to monitor.

72

SpaceX Stock Rebounds Above IPO Price After Starlink Launch and Musk All-Hands Meeting

  • SpaceX shares surged 9.7% on Wednesday, closing above the $135 IPO price after Elon Musk held an all-hands meeting and the company launched 24 Starlink satellites.
  • The rebound signals renewed confidence in SpaceX's business model and Starlink's revenue potential, though the stock remains well below its June peak of $225.64.

SpaceX stock rallied 9.7% on Wednesday, closing at $146.15 and reclaiming ground above its June 12 IPO price of $135. The move was catalyzed by Elon Musk's all-hands meeting with employees and the successful launch of 24 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The rebound reflects investor optimism about Starlink's path to profitability and SpaceX's broader commercial and government contracts. However, the stock remains 35% below its June 16 peak of $225.64, suggesting lingering skepticism about valuation or execution risks. The move is part of a broader AI and space infrastructure rally, as investors bet on the buildout of satellite internet and AI compute infrastructure.

65

Solana Network Nears Freeze Threshold After Routing Glitch Knocks 29% of Staked Tokens Offline

  • A routing glitch at a major data center provider knocked nearly 29% of Solana's staked tokens offline, bringing the network within striking distance of a full freeze.
  • The Solana Foundation stressed that blocks and transactions never stopped, but the incident highlights ongoing network stability concerns despite recent improvements.

Solana's network experienced a critical scare on Wednesday when a routing glitch at a major data center provider knocked approximately 29% of the blockchain's staked tokens offline, bringing the network dangerously close to a consensus failure (which occurs at 33% offline). The Solana Foundation emphasized that blocks and transactions continued uninterrupted, but the incident reignited concerns about network stability that have plagued the blockchain since its launch. Solana has made significant progress on reliability through upgrades like the Firedancer client optimization, but this incident shows the network remains vulnerable to infrastructure failures. The event is a reminder that despite Solana's technical improvements and institutional adoption (Spot ETFs, corporate treasury strategies), execution risk remains a key variable for long-term viability.

Top Story

July CPI Cools to 3.4%, Easing Fed Pressure and Reshaping Rate Expectations

The Consumer Price Index rose just 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) up 0.2%—both in line with expectations and marking a deceleration from June's readings. On an annual basis, headline inflation fell to 3.4% from 3.5% in June, while core inflation held steady at 2.5%, both down 0.1 percentage point month-over-month. The data released Wednesday morning triggered an immediate repricing of Fed policy: money markets slashed the probability of a September rate hike from roughly 50% to 35%, signaling investors now expect the central bank to hold steady and potentially begin cutting in late 2026. The tame readings reflect a structural shift in the inflation narrative. Earlier in 2026, energy prices spiked sharply due to the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, pushing headline CPI above 4%. But as geopolitical tensions have stabilized and oil prices have drifted lower (Brent down 1.19% to $87.92 on Wednesday), the energy impulse is fading. Shelter costs, which had been stubbornly elevated, also moderated with a 0.1% monthly gain—a sign that the housing market's cooling is finally translating into lower rent growth. This inflation relief removes the urgency for the Fed to raise rates, which had been a real risk just weeks ago when hawkish Fed officials were signaling conviction about holding or hiking. Now, with disinflation the dominant trend and growth concerns mounting (July jobs data showed a surprise 23,000 payroll loss), the Fed's bias has shifted toward patience, setting the stage for potential cuts in Q4 2026 if inflation continues to moderate.

💡 Seasonally adjusted means the data has been adjusted to account for predictable seasonal patterns (e.g., holiday shopping, summer travel) so month-to-month changes reflect true underlying trends rather than seasonal noise. Year-over-year (YoY) compares the current month to the same month last year, smoothing out monthly volatility.

Tech & AI

CoreWeave Surges 20% on Stronger-Than-Expected AI Infrastructure Revenue

  • CoreWeave, a GPU cloud provider, posted revenue that beat analyst expectations, signaling robust demand for AI compute infrastructure.
  • The surge reflects accelerating enterprise spending on AI hardware and data center buildout, benefiting the entire AI infrastructure stack.

CoreWeave delivered a sharp earnings beat on Wednesday, with revenue coming in significantly above consensus forecasts and driving a 20% single-day rally. The company, which provides cloud-based GPU infrastructure for AI workloads, is seeing explosive demand from enterprises and hyperscalers racing to build out data centers for large language models and generative AI applications. The beat signals that the AI capex cycle remains in full swing despite macro uncertainty, with customers prioritizing infrastructure spending to stay competitive in the AI arms race. This validates the thesis that AI infrastructure providers—from chip makers to cloud operators—will be the primary beneficiaries of the generative AI boom.

💡 Hyperscalers are mega-cap tech companies (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) that operate massive data centers and cloud platforms. They're the primary customers for GPU infrastructure providers.

Intel Raises $20B in Equity to Fund Foundry Expansion Amid Geopolitical Chip War

  • Intel announced a $20 billion equity raise to fund its foundry business and compete with TSMC, signaling conviction in long-term chip demand.
  • The dilution is offset by analyst support, with UBS and BofA viewing the move as removing overhang and endorsing Intel's foundry roadmap.

Intel disclosed a $20 billion equity offering on Tuesday to accelerate its foundry strategy—the push to manufacture chips for external customers, not just its own products. The raise, while dilutive to existing shareholders (roughly 5% EPS dilution), is being viewed positively by analysts as a sign of management confidence in demand for advanced chip manufacturing. Bank of America's Vivek Arya called it net positive given foundry scale and customer conviction, while UBS noted the equity raise removes a key overhang for the stock. The move reflects the geopolitical reality of the chip war: the US and allies are racing to build domestic semiconductor capacity to reduce reliance on Taiwan's TSMC, and Intel's foundry business is central to that strategy. Government support (via the CHIPS Act) is also flowing, with the US committing $8.9 billion in funding to Intel's fabs.

💡 A foundry is a chip manufacturing facility that produces semiconductors designed by other companies. Intel traditionally made only its own chips; now it's competing with TSMC to manufacture chips for customers like AMD, Qualcomm, and others.

Anthropic Eyes October IPO at $2T+ Valuation, Signaling AI Startup Maturity

  • Anthropic, the AI safety-focused startup behind Claude, is targeting an October IPO at a $2 trillion valuation or higher.
  • The move reflects the maturation of the AI sector, with even pre-revenue or early-stage AI companies commanding mega-cap valuations based on future potential.

Anthropic, the AI startup founded by former OpenAI researchers, is planning to go public in October at a valuation of $2 trillion or more, according to reports. Some of the company's own backers are modeling valuations as high as $3 trillion. The IPO would be a watershed moment for the AI sector, validating the bull case that AI infrastructure and applications will reshape the economy. Anthropic's Claude LLM has gained traction with enterprises and developers, and the company has positioned itself as a leader in AI safety and alignment—a differentiator in a crowded market. The IPO timing, coming after the inflation print and Fed pivot, suggests venture capital and public markets are confident in a soft-landing scenario where AI spending continues unabated.

💡 An IPO (initial public offering) is when a private company sells shares to the public for the first time. A $2T valuation means the market is assigning a $2 trillion value to Anthropic's equity, making it one of the most valuable companies ever at IPO.

Crypto & Web3

Russia Approves Bitcoin and Ethereum Trading Framework for Retail Investors

  • The Bank of Russia published a draft directive allowing non-qualified retail investors to trade digital assets through licensed brokers.
  • The move signals growing institutional acceptance of crypto and could unlock new demand from Russian retail investors previously locked out of the market.

The Bank of Russia released a draft regulatory framework on August 11 that would permit non-qualified retail investors to trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets through licensed brokers and exchanges. The directive marks a significant shift in Russia's crypto stance, moving from outright skepticism to regulated participation. The framework aims to bring retail crypto trading into the formal financial system, allowing the central bank to monitor flows and enforce AML/KYC (anti-money laundering and know-your-customer) compliance. This is part of a broader global trend toward crypto legitimacy, with major economies (US, EU, UK) establishing regulatory clarity. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, the Russian approval could unlock new demand from retail investors and institutions previously unable to access crypto through traditional channels.

💡 AML/KYC refers to anti-money laundering and know-your-customer rules that require financial institutions to verify customer identity and monitor for suspicious activity. Licensed brokers are firms authorized by regulators to conduct financial transactions.

MoneyGram Launches Solana Cash-Out Ramps Across 170 Countries

  • MoneyGram integrated Solana-native cash-out functionality, allowing users to convert SOL to fiat currency across 170 countries.
  • The partnership accelerates Solana's adoption as a payments rail and signals institutional confidence in the blockchain's utility for remittances and cross-border transfers.

MoneyGram, the global remittance and money transfer platform, launched Solana-native cash-out ramps on Wednesday, enabling users to convert Solana tokens directly to fiat currency in 170 countries. The integration, which went live through the Rift wallet, removes a critical friction point for Solana adoption: the ability to convert crypto to local currency without relying on centralized exchanges. This is particularly significant for emerging markets where remittances are a major source of income and traditional banking infrastructure is limited. Solana's low transaction costs (fractions of a cent) and fast settlement times make it ideal for cross-border payments, and MoneyGram's distribution network legitimizes the use case. The move also reflects Solana's recovery narrative after network stability issues earlier in the year.

💡 Cash-out ramps are services that convert cryptocurrency to traditional fiat currency (USD, EUR, etc.) and deposit it into a user's bank account. Solana's low fees make it ideal for remittances, where transaction costs directly reduce the amount recipients receive.

What's Ahead

Friday, August 15: Retail Sales Data (July) — Expected +0.3% MoM — Consumer spending data will provide insight into whether the moderation in inflation is translating to resilient demand or early signs of demand destruction. A beat would reinforce the soft-landing narrative; a miss could signal growth concerns.
Monday, August 18: Producer Price Index (July) — Expected +0.2% MoM — PPI measures wholesale inflation and is a leading indicator for consumer prices. A tame reading would further support the disinflation narrative and reduce Fed pressure.
Wednesday, August 20: Fed Chair Powell Speaks at Jackson Hole Economic Symposium — Powell's remarks will be closely parsed for clues on the Fed's rate path. Markets will listen for any shift in language around inflation, growth, or the timing of potential cuts.

Something Fascinating

Scientists Discover Octopuses Can Taste With Their Arms, Rewriting Understanding of Sensory Biology

A groundbreaking study published this week revealed that octopuses have chemoreceptors (taste sensors) distributed across their eight arms, not just in their mouths. This means an octopus can literally taste what it's touching as it explores the ocean floor, a sensory superpower that explains their remarkable hunting efficiency in the dark depths where vision is useless. The finding rewrites neurobiology textbooks: instead of a centralized sensory system like humans have, octopuses evolved a radically decentralized nervous system where each arm can independently sense, decide, and act. This distributed intelligence is why octopuses can solve puzzles, open jars, and escape aquariums—each arm is semi-autonomous. The discovery also hints at how evolution solves the problem of operating in extreme environments: when you can't rely on eyes or a central brain, you distribute decision-making to the periphery. It's a humbling reminder that intelligence takes wildly different forms across species.

💡 Chemoreceptors are sensory cells that detect chemical compounds. In humans, they're concentrated on the tongue; in octopuses, they're spread across the arms, creating a distributed 'tasting' system.

Morning Brief — Thursday, August 13, 2026

Built by Phil Dressler

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