Markets Snapshot
August 13, 2026 — 4:00 PM ET close
The S&P 500 hit a record high Thursday after softer-than-expected inflation data (CPI at 3.4% YoY, down from 3.5% in June) and flat producer prices eased Fed rate-hike fears. Markets now price only a 35% chance of a September rate increase, down from 55% a week earlier, which reduced the discount rate used to value future corporate earnings and boosted growth stocks. This disinflation narrative also weakened the dollar 0.04% as lower rate expectations reduced the appeal of dollar-denominated assets.
Why It Matters: The market is pricing in a Fed hold through year-end, which shifts the narrative from inflation-fighting to growth support—a structural shift that could sustain the equity rally if inflation continues to moderate. The simultaneous weakness in the dollar and strength in equities signals that investors are rotating from defensive positioning into risk assets, betting that the worst of the inflation shock has passed. Watch the next CPI print in September and any Fed commentary—a surprise reacceleration in prices could quickly reverse this dovish positioning.
📖 Finance Deep Dive: Today's moves illustrate the inverse relationship between bond yields and equity valuations: when the 10Y Treasury fell 5 basis points to 4.65%, it reduced the discount rate (the risk-free rate component of the weighted average cost of capital, or WACC) used to value future corporate earnings, meaning higher present values for growth stocks, especially those with earnings concentrated in the future. The 2s/10s spread compressed 2 basis points to 73 basis points, reflecting a flattening curve as short-term rate-cut expectations rose faster than long-term yields fell—a classic soft-landing signal suggesting markets expect growth to slow but not collapse. The dollar's flatness despite dovish data reveals geopolitical bid: the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are keeping safe-haven demand for dollars elevated, offsetting the impact of lower rate expectations. Real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations) remain positive at roughly 1.25%, which is why gold hasn't rallied despite the inflation miss—investors aren't yet pricing in deflation, just disinflation. This positive real yield environment typically favors equities over commodities, explaining why stocks outperformed precious metals on the day.
WDAY — Workday
$487.50
+17.8%
Biggest S&P 500 Mover
Workday surged 17.8% on Thursday, the strongest S&P 500 performer of the day, as enterprise software stocks benefited from renewed confidence in AI adoption and strong earnings momentum. The move reflects investor appetite for cloud-based productivity tools amid expectations that corporate spending on digital transformation will accelerate. This outperformance signals a broadening rally beyond mega-cap tech into software and services names.
Equities
S&P 500
7798.99
1d: 🟢 +0.65% YTD: 🟢 +14.4%
NASDAQ
26803.03
1d: 🟢 +0.81% YTD: 🟢 +19.3%
Dow
53839.99
1d: 🟢 +0.13% YTD: 🟢 +11.2%
Russell 2000
3052.85
1d: 🟢 +0.24% YTD: 🟢 +23.1%
Mag 7
69.11
1d: 🟢 +0.86% YTD: 🟢 +18.5%
Nikkei 225
68308.59
1d: 🟢 +1.16% YTD: 🟢 +12.8%
Euro Stoxx 50
6545.47
1d: 🟢 +0.18% YTD: 🟢 +8.3%
MSCI EAFE
2847.32
1d: 🟢 +0.42% YTD: 🟢 +9.1%
MSCI EM
1156.78
1d: 🔴 (0.15%) YTD: 🟢 +6.2%
Rates & Yield Curve
2Y Treasury
3.92%
1d: 🔴 (3.0 bps) YTD: 🟢 +18 bps
10Y Treasury
4.65%
1d: 🔴 (5.0 bps) YTD: 🟢 +22 bps
30Y Treasury
4.98%
1d: 🔴 (4.0 bps) YTD: 🟢 +28 bps
2s/10s Spread
73 bps
1d: 🔴 (2.0 bps) YTD: 🟢 +4 bps
30Y Mortgage Rate
6.18%
1d: 🔴 (4.0 bps) YTD: 🟢 +32 bps
FX & Volatility
DXY
99.92
1d: 🔴 (0.04%) YTD: 🔴 (1.12%)
VIX
14.63
1d: 🟢 +0.55% YTD: 🔴 (28.4%)
Commodities
Gold
4414.70
1d: 🔴 (0.13%) YTD: 🟢 +18.2%
WTI Crude
81.33
1d: 🟢 +0.10% YTD: 🟢 +1.04%
Brent Crude
87.18
1d: 🟢 +0.13% YTD: 🟢 +32.4%
Natural Gas
2.68
1d: 🔴 (1.8%) YTD: 🔴 (22.3%)
Copper
4.32
1d: 🟢 +0.47% YTD: 🟢 +12.1%
Crypto
BTC
63420.01
1d: 🔴 (0.11%) YTD: 🟢 +42.8%
ETH
1904.99
1d: 🟢 +1.10% YTD: 🟢 +38.5%
SOL
75.28
1d: 🔴 (1.00%) YTD: 🔴 (74.3%)
Economic Backdrop
Fed Funds: 3.50–3.75%CPI: 3.4% YoY (July 2026)Unemployment: 4.1% (July 2026)Next FOMC: September 15–16 — 35% chance of rate increase
Prediction Markets
Will the Fed cut rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?
35%
CME FedWatch
Will the S&P 500 close above 7,900 by end of August?
68%
Polymarket
Will US CPI fall below 3.0% by December 2026?
42%
Kalshi
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by end of Q3 2026?
38%
Polymarket
Will the Strait of Hormuz remain open through September?
55%
Kalshi
Trending Now
78
- US retail sales fell 0.6% in July to $763.6B, missing forecasts for a 0.1% gain, signaling consumer spending is cooling.
- The miss raises questions about whether the soft inflation backdrop will translate into a growth slowdown or a healthy rebalancing.
US retail sales declined 0.6% in July, missing economist expectations for a 0.1% increase, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday. The miss suggests that consumers are pulling back on discretionary purchases despite softer inflation, possibly due to higher interest rates and depleted pandemic savings. However, restaurant spending remained strong, indicating that consumers are still willing to spend on services, creating a mixed picture that could force the Fed to cut rates sooner if the trend accelerates.
72
- Brent crude held steady at $87.18/bbl Friday as investors adopt a wait-and-see stance on Middle East peace negotiations.
- Despite ongoing disruptions, crude flows continue through the Strait of Hormuz, capping upside pressure on energy prices.
Brent crude oil traded near $87 per barrel Friday, stabilizing after a six-session rally as investors weighed conflicting signals on the Iran conflict. While the Strait of Hormuz remains partially disrupted, tankers are still transiting (some with transponders off), and the US is expanding its naval escort capacity. The International Energy Agency cut its global oil demand outlook this week, warning that prolonged conflict and elevated prices are weighing on consumption, offsetting supply concerns.
68
- The DXY fell only 0.04% to 99.92 Friday despite softer CPI and PPI data that typically weaken the dollar.
- Geopolitical risk premium from the Iran conflict is offsetting the impact of lower rate expectations.
The US Dollar Index held near 99.92 Friday, barely budging despite three consecutive soft inflation and labor prints that typically trigger a sharp dollar selloff. Normally, dovish data would reduce the appeal of dollar-denominated assets as lower rate expectations emerge, but the Iran conflict and uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz reopening are keeping investors in safe-haven mode. If geopolitical tensions ease and the Strait reopens, expect a sharper dollar decline and a potential acceleration in the equity rally.
Top Story
- Reddit will be added to the S&P 500 before market open on August 18, marking a major validation for the platform's AI licensing strategy.
- The stock jumped 10.4% on the news, reflecting investor confidence that Reddit's user-generated content and community data are valuable assets for training AI models.
S&P Dow Jones Indices announced Thursday that Reddit will join the S&P 500 effective August 18, sending the social media platform's shares up 10.4% in premarket trading Friday. The inclusion is a watershed moment for Reddit, which has pivoted aggressively toward monetizing its vast repository of user discussions and community data through AI licensing partnerships. Unlike most social platforms that struggle to monetize user attention, Reddit has found a direct revenue stream by licensing its data to AI companies training large language models. The move signals that Wall Street now sees Reddit's content moat as a genuine competitive advantage in the AI era, validating a new business model for legacy social networks: instead of competing with AI, they can profit from it.
💡 S&P 500 index addition — when a company is added to the S&P 500, index-tracking funds (which hold trillions in assets) must buy the stock to match the index. This creates automatic demand and typically drives a short-term price pop.
Tech & AI
- Workday surged to become the S&P 500's biggest gainer Thursday, driven by optimism around AI-powered HR and finance automation.
- The move reflects a broadening rally in enterprise software as companies accelerate digital transformation spending.
Workday jumped 17.8% Thursday, the largest single-day gain for any S&P 500 stock, as investors rewarded the HR and finance software giant for its AI-driven product roadmap and strong earnings. The rally signals that the AI trade is expanding beyond semiconductor and hyperscaler names into enterprise applications where companies can deploy AI to automate workflows and reduce costs. This broadening of the AI narrative—from infrastructure (chips, cloud) to applications (software)—could sustain equity gains even if semiconductor valuations compress.
- Flash memory maker SanDisk gained 7% after delivering an upbeat long-term financial outlook at its 2026 Investor Day.
- The move reflects renewed confidence in semiconductor demand as AI data centers continue to expand storage needs.
SanDisk climbed 7% Thursday following its Investor Day presentation, where management outlined a bullish long-term financial outlook tied to rising demand for data storage in AI infrastructure. The company is benefiting from the explosion in data center buildouts, where massive amounts of NAND flash memory are required for training and inference workloads. SanDisk's guidance suggests that semiconductor supply constraints are easing, allowing memory makers to capture pricing power and volume growth simultaneously.
- Nvidia will report earnings on August 21, with markets watching closely for any signs that AI enthusiasm is justified by actual demand and profitability.
- A miss or cautious guidance could trigger a sharp pullback in mega-cap tech and the broader AI trade.
Nvidia's earnings report on August 21 is shaping up to be the most anticipated earnings of the season, with investors scrutinizing guidance for any cracks in the AI boom narrative. The company's results will signal whether the explosive demand for AI chips is sustainable or whether customers are pulling back on spending. A strong beat could extend the rally into software and services, while a miss could force a painful repricing of the entire AI trade.
Crypto & Web3
- Bitcoin fell 0.11% to $63,420 despite softer inflation data that typically benefits risk assets, signaling weakness in crypto sentiment.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their first back-to-back outflows since late July, suggesting institutional money is rotating away from crypto.
Bitcoin slipped 0.11% to $63,420 Friday, failing to rally on the same inflation data that boosted equities and gold. The divergence is telling: while stocks and precious metals benefited from lower rate-hike expectations, crypto remained under pressure as spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded consecutive daily outflows for the first time in weeks. This suggests that institutional investors are rotating out of crypto and into traditional risk assets like equities, which offer earnings growth and dividends.
💡 Spot Bitcoin ETFs — funds that hold actual Bitcoin (not futures contracts), allowing investors to gain crypto exposure through traditional brokerage accounts. Inflows and outflows signal institutional sentiment shifts.
- Russia's central bank published a draft directive allowing non-qualified retail investors to trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT through licensed brokers.
- The move signals growing acceptance of crypto in emerging markets despite Western regulatory skepticism.
Russia's central bank released a draft framework on August 11 permitting retail investors to trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether through licensed intermediaries, capping annual purchases at 300,000 rubles (roughly $3,000 USD). The directive marks a significant shift in Russia's crypto stance, moving from outright skepticism to regulated adoption. As Western sanctions pressure Russia to develop alternative financial infrastructure, crypto adoption becomes a strategic tool for capital flows outside the dollar system.
What's Ahead
Monday, August 18:
Reddit officially joins S&P 500 index
— Passive index funds will rebalance to include Reddit, creating automatic buying pressure. Watch for any pre-announcement volatility or profit-taking.
Next Week:
Retail earnings: Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT)
— Consumer spending data will be critical to assess whether the soft inflation backdrop translates into sustained demand or signals economic slowdown. Weak guidance could reignite recession fears.
August 21:
Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report
— The most anticipated earnings of the season. Any miss or cautious guidance could trigger a sharp pullback in mega-cap tech and the broader AI trade. This is the key test of whether AI enthusiasm is justified by fundamentals.
Something Fascinating
- Scientists discovered that sea turtles use Earth's magnetic field to navigate across thousands of miles of open ocean, but rising temperatures are distorting the field and disorienting hatchlings.
- The finding reveals how climate change impacts species in ways we're only beginning to understand—not just through temperature, but through disruption of ancient biological navigation systems.
Researchers at the University of North Carolina found that loggerhead sea turtles rely on an internal magnetic compass to navigate from nesting beaches to feeding grounds across the Atlantic, a journey of thousands of miles. But as Earth's magnetic field shifts due to climate change and solar activity, hatchlings are becoming disoriented, swimming in wrong directions and washing up on unfamiliar coasts. This is a second-order climate impact that most people miss: the disruption of geomagnetic navigation systems is silently rewriting migration patterns for dozens of species, revealing that the climate crisis isn't just about carbon—it's about the fundamental physical systems that life depends on.
💡 Magnetoreception — the ability of animals to sense and navigate using Earth's magnetic field. Many species (birds, whales, sea turtles) use this sense for long-distance migration, and climate-driven changes to the magnetic field can disorient these animals, leading to population declines.