Wednesday, August 26, 2026
☀️ Somewhere right now, a sea turtle that hatched in 1962 is still just vibing in the Pacific—living proof that patience and persistence actually work.
August 25, 2026 — 4:00 PM ET close
Nvidia shares rose ahead of the company's fiscal Q2 earnings report after market close on August 26, with consensus expectations at $91.9B revenue and $2.08 EPS. The chipmaker's stock has been under pressure this month amid semiconductor sector weakness and concerns about slowing AI capex growth, but today's pre-earnings rally reflects investor optimism that the company will beat expectations and provide reassuring guidance on AI demand. A strong beat could reignite the mega-cap tech rally that has stalled since early August.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Monday that the Trump administration would pursue aggressive economic sanctions against Iran and any countries or financial institutions doing business with Tehran, warning of a potential deadline for countries to sever ties or face unilateral US penalties. The announcement sparked a sharp decline in oil prices, with WTI falling 3.15% and Brent down 2.86%, as markets interpreted the move as a pivot away from military escalation toward economic pressure. This shift reduces the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which had been a key driver of oil volatility in recent weeks. Lower oil prices reduce inflation expectations and support the Fed's case for rate cuts, which is why markets have repriced the September FOMC meeting from a 30% hike probability to a 65% hold probability.
Moderna shares surged on Tuesday after the company released positive clinical trial data for its melanoma vaccine candidate, showing efficacy in combination with Merck's Keytruda. The data represents a major milestone for the company's cancer vaccine program and suggests that mRNA technology could be applied to solid tumors beyond infectious diseases. The positive readout has reignited investor interest in the biotech sector, which has lagged this year amid concerns about drug pricing and regulatory headwinds. Moderna's rally also reflects broader market sentiment that lower interest rates will support biotech valuations, as many companies in the sector are unprofitable and benefit from lower discount rates.
DICK'S Sporting Goods shares plummeted 30.68% on Tuesday after the company provided cautious guidance on its ability to integrate the Foot Locker acquisition without disrupting operations or margins. The sharp decline reflects investor concerns about execution risk in a highly competitive retail environment where margins are already thin. The sell-off also highlights the broader challenge facing large retailers: consolidation is difficult to execute, and synergies are often harder to realize than anticipated. DICK'S is not a constituent of the S&P 500, so the move did not significantly impact the broader market, but it serves as a cautionary tale for other retail M&A deals in the pipeline.
Semiconductor stocks stabilized on Tuesday after a sharp sell-off on Monday, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) up 1.2% as investors positioned ahead of Nvidia's earnings report. The sector had been under pressure due to concerns about slowing AI capex growth and margin compression, but the combination of lower interest rates and falling oil prices has reignited demand for growth stocks. Chip stocks like Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom, which fell more than 3% on Monday, rebounded on Tuesday as investors reassessed the sector's growth prospects. The sector's performance will largely depend on Nvidia's guidance and commentary on AI demand trends.
The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 7 basis points to 4.625% on Tuesday, extending a two-day rally that has reshaped market expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The catalyst was mixed inflation data: while the July PCE price index rose 0.2% month-over-month (above the 0.1% consensus), the annual rate of 3.7% and core PCE of 3.3% both came in line with expectations, suggesting disinflation is progressing despite the monthly beat. Markets interpreted this as evidence that the Fed is not behind the curve on inflation, reducing the urgency for rate hikes. The shift is structural: just weeks ago, traders were pricing in a 30%+ probability of a September hike; today, that's collapsed to near-zero, with a 65% probability of a hold. This repricing reflects a broader macro narrative: softer July employment data (payrolls declined, prior months revised lower) combined with cooling inflation has convinced the market that the Fed will begin cutting rates in September or October, not hiking. The Treasury Department's announcement that it would double its long-term bond buyback program—potentially using $1 trillion from its General Account—also signaled a shift toward financial accommodation, which markets read as a green light for lower rates ahead. Oil prices fell 3%+ as the Trump administration signaled it would pursue economic sanctions against Iran rather than military escalation, easing supply disruption fears and reducing inflation expectations further. The combination of lower rates, reduced oil prices, and a dovish Fed pivot has triggered a powerful rally in rate-sensitive sectors (tech, growth, crypto) and emerging markets, though mega-cap tech remains choppy ahead of Nvidia's earnings report after today's close.
💡 Basis points (bps) — 1/100th of a percentage point; a 7 bps decline means the yield fell 0.07%. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which tracks price changes across all consumer spending. WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) — the discount rate used to value future corporate earnings; lower rates reduce WACC, which mechanically increases stock valuations.
Nvidia shares rose 2.8% ahead of the company's fiscal Q2 earnings report, which is scheduled for release after today's market close. Consensus expectations sit at $91.9B in revenue and $2.08 in earnings per share, representing continued strong growth in AI-driven data center demand. The earnings report is critical because the semiconductor sector has faced headwinds this month—chip stocks fell sharply on August 23 as investors worried about slowing AI capex growth and margin compression. A beat and strong forward guidance could restore confidence in the AI trade and lift the Magnificent Seven, which has underperformed the broader market in August. Conversely, a miss or cautious guidance could accelerate the recent rotation out of mega-cap tech into small-cap and value stocks.
💡 Fiscal Q2 — Nvidia's second quarter, which typically ends in July. Data center revenue is the company's largest segment and is driven by AI infrastructure spending by cloud providers and enterprises.
President Trump has publicly pushed Congress to pass the Clarity Act, legislation that would establish a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies by defining them as commodities rather than securities. The bill is currently stalled in the Senate but is scheduled for a procedural vote in September. Passage would represent a major victory for the crypto industry, which has long sought regulatory clarity to attract institutional capital and reduce legal uncertainty. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices surged on the news, with BTC breaking $80,000 for the first time in over three months. The Clarity Act would also unlock new tokenization opportunities in finance and commerce, potentially accelerating adoption of blockchain infrastructure.
💡 Clarity Act — proposed legislation that would classify digital assets as commodities under CFTC oversight rather than securities under SEC oversight, reducing regulatory burden and enabling more efficient trading and custody.
Abercrombie & Fitch raised its full-year sales forecast on Wednesday, citing strong demand for its apparel brands and better-than-expected consumer spending trends. The upgrade reflects resilience in discretionary spending despite elevated inflation and suggests that consumers are not yet pulling back on non-essential purchases. This data point supports the broader narrative that the US economy remains on solid footing, which could influence the Fed's decision-making at the September FOMC meeting. Strong consumer spending also supports earnings growth for retail and consumer discretionary stocks, which have lagged mega-cap tech this year.
💡 Full-year sales forecast — a company's updated projection of total revenue for the entire fiscal year; an upward revision signals management confidence in demand and typically boosts stock prices.
Bitcoin has staged its strongest weekly rally since March 2023, climbing 23% in the past week and breaking through the $80,000 level on Tuesday for the first time in over three months. The rally was triggered by the Treasury Department's announcement that it would double its long-term bond buyback program, which markets interpreted as a signal of monetary accommodation and lower rates ahead. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have accelerated to over $3 billion in August, the largest monthly total since March, as institutional investors bet that softer inflation and a dovish Fed will support risk assets. The combination of lower yields (which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin) and regulatory clarity from the Clarity Act has created a powerful tailwind for crypto. Ethereum and Solana have also rallied, with SOL up 26% on the week despite a 3.9% pullback today as traders bank gains.
💡 Spot ETF — an exchange-traded fund that holds the actual asset (Bitcoin) rather than futures contracts, allowing retail and institutional investors to gain exposure without managing private keys or custody.
Solana set a new record for weekly network activity, processing 1.32 billion non-vote transactions between August 17 and 23, according to Blockworks data. The surge reflects strong adoption of decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and NFT trading on the network. Separately, Solana validators are voting on three proposals to reduce SOL supply growth: two of the proposals would accelerate the network's inflation decline and raise daily fee burns from about 650 SOL to as much as 9,000 SOL. If passed, these changes could reduce new SOL creation and increase token scarcity, potentially supporting the token's price. SOL has rallied 26% on the week but pulled back 3.9% today as traders took profits after the strong run.
💡 Fee burns — the destruction of tokens when users pay transaction fees; higher burns reduce the circulating supply and can support token prices by creating scarcity. Validators — network participants who run Solana nodes and vote on protocol upgrades.
💡 Jackson Hole — an annual gathering of central bankers, economists, and policymakers where the Fed chair often provides forward guidance on monetary policy. Warsh has so far avoided explicit forward guidance, so his speech will be closely watched for any signals on rate cuts.
💡 Initial jobless claims — the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in a given week. A rising trend suggests labor market weakness; a declining trend suggests strength.
💡 Core PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, excluding volatile food and energy prices. It's used to assess underlying inflation trends and guide monetary policy decisions.
While markets focused on Treasury yields and oil prices, a quiet revolution was unfolding in crypto: Solana set a new record for weekly network activity with 1.32 billion transactions, while Bitcoin broke $80,000 and Ethereum rallied 20% on the week. These metrics reveal something profound: crypto is no longer just a speculative asset class—it's becoming genuine infrastructure. Solana's record activity reflects real usage: DeFi protocols, NFT trading, and payment applications are processing billions of transactions daily. Bitcoin's rally, driven by spot ETF inflows exceeding $3 billion in August, shows that institutions are treating crypto as a legitimate asset class worthy of portfolio allocation. The Clarity Act, which would define crypto as commodities rather than securities, removes a major regulatory overhang and could unlock trillions in institutional capital. What's fascinating is that this adoption is happening despite—or perhaps because of—macro uncertainty: lower interest rates make non-yielding assets like Bitcoin more attractive, and the Fed's pivot toward accommodation is fueling a risk-on environment where crypto thrives. In five years, we may look back at August 2026 as the inflection point where crypto transitioned from fringe to mainstream.
💡 Non-vote transactions — blockchain transactions that exclude validator votes on protocol upgrades; this metric better reflects actual network usage and economic activity. Spot ETF inflows — the amount of capital flowing into exchange-traded funds that hold the actual asset, indicating institutional adoption.